Growth
Eichengreen sees danger in US fiscal stimulus
Veteran economist warns infrastructure spending in the US may prove damaging to both the domestic and global economy, without necessarily fixing secular stagnation
Measurement error a big part of ‘missing growth’ – Philippe Aghion
Statistics fail to capture creative destruction, French academic argues; US researchers say productivity in IT sector points to continued puzzle
News cycle can give estimate of business cycle – Norges Bank paper
Index derived from business newspaper is both more timely and more accurate than traditional business cycle indicators, author says
Palestine Monetary Authority forecasts slowdown amid ‘political impasse’
Authority sees likelihood of “slackening trend” of growth in coming years as Gaza Strip “siege” continues and restrictions affect the West Bank
BIS’s Caruana: fiscal space is ‘slippery’
Fiscal authorities should not overestimate the available room for manoeuvre, as less obvious factors may pose constraints, BIS chief says
IMF paper shows US monetary conditions impact EM leverage
Impact is more pronounced for firms that are dependent on external financing, authors find; sample shows financial conditions have the ability to influence borrowing constraints
RBI paper unpacks India’s non-performing loan troubles
Authors find bank risk-taking is procyclical and the level of non-performing loans responds to the interest rate environment and the overall growth of the economy
Netherlands paper exposes differing capital flows across EMU
Paper examines the mechanism behind divergence of north and south eurozone members, as capital flows caused external imbalances to move in opposite directions
IMF paper links Chinese growth to ‘drastic increase’ in inequality
Rapid growth in recent decades linked to rising economic inequality, with consumption and income inequality co-moving closely
Economic growth on the horizon for Finland, says Liikanen
Improved productivity and higher employment are needed to boost economic growth, says Finnish governor; Bank of Finland’s forecasts show recovery will be slower than in previous cycles
IMF to tackle effects of globalisation in 2017
Fund says it will focus on bringing the benefits of globalisation and technology to a wider section of society, amid a populist backlash against openness
Denmark’s economy set for a boom, says Rohde
Latest release of reports show Danish economy is resilient and set to grow in the next two years; governor Rohde still concerned about house prices
Tajik central bank launches consumer protection push
Plan could create stability and growth if it is successful, but resource constraints are a challenge, National Bank of Tajikistan says
OECD expects growth boost from Trump infrastructure plans
Organisation says “well targeted” public spending could help economies escape slow growth, though it warns protectionism might undo the benefits
Mauritian governor explores low-growth puzzle
The government and the central bank need to work together in order to stimulate growth, Roi says, recognising each institution can only do so much
Norges Bank paper presents new evidence on immigration impact
Authors seek to disentangle immigration shock from broader macroeconomic effects, using unique Norwegian data series
Kganyago says low point for growth has ‘passed’
The Sarb governor says inflation is “uncomfortably close” to the upper end of the target range; the monetary policy committee unanimously votes to keep rates on hold
Israel’s red tape is bad for business – Flug
The Bank of Israel governor says cutting back on bureaucratic regulations could help the economy grow faster with little budgetary impact
Turkish central bank hikes as Trump election hits lira
Turkish lira has been targeted in emerging market currency sell-off; rate hike ignores the latest call for more cuts from Turkish president
Australasia has avoided stagnation trend – RBNZ’s Bascand
Different household behaviour in Australia and New Zealand appears to have contributed to higher growth and investment
Demands on central banks have created critical juncture – El-Erian
Economist says burden placed on central banks has created economic and political instability across the globe, and something must soon give
Fed’s Powell sees China as major factor in global trade slowdown
Fed governor seeks to explain global trade slowdown, citing many factors but saying China “looms large” in the debate
IMF lifts censure on Argentinian inflation
Inflation and GDP figures now in line with international standards, fund acknowledges; Lagarde praises Argentinian authority’s efforts to reform statistical agency
RBA paper finds it is hard to pinpoint US productivity slowdowns
Break in productivity growth trend in US appears to have happened in early 1970s, although beliefs took three decades to fully adjust, authors find