Growth
Fischer examines growth dilemma
Fed vice-chairman says behaviour of inflation and output as economy normalises may provide some answers
Bank of Namibia revises growth forecasts
Latest economic outlook warns lower production from the mining sector will have an impact on GDP levels for this year, but growth is expected to pick up in 2017
Barro and Summers wrestle with productivity puzzle
Veteran economists seek to offer explanations and policy prescriptions for strong employment and weak growth in the US and elsewhere
Bank of England MPC backtracks on planned rate cut
Latest inflation report forecasts larger overshoot of 2% target; there are “limits” to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated, committee says
Oil price rises and US GDP growth have ‘complex relationship’ – paper
Paper studies interaction of oil price and economic growth in US from 1875 to 2016
Dominican Republic central bank hikes despite falling inflation
Central bank action comes as economy grows more than expected, although inflation is well below target; US factors prove a concern
Lagarde welcomes ‘major policy shift’ in Saudi Arabia
IMF managing director says efforts to reduce reliance on oil are “very welcome”, although Gulf countries more generally need to continue their fiscal adjustment
Chile’s Vergara to pass torch to Marcel
Mario Marcel is chosen to become the next central bank governor when Vergara’s term ends in December; Marcel has experience at the World Bank, OECD and IDB
Book notes: Achieving financial stability and growth in Africa, edited by Stephany Griffith-Jones and Ricardo Gottschalk
John Chown praises this comprehensive review that studies the possibility of achieving ‘the impossible’ in low-income Africa – both growth and financial stability
Neutral policy stance needed for ‘extended’ period – MAS
Singapore’s central bank says inflation is trending in the right direction, but notes economic growth is unlikely to pick up over the next year
BoE’s Saunders expects higher post-Brexit growth than central forecast
Bank of England’s newest committee member says the labour market is likely to prove more sluggish than the consensus suggests, but growth will be more positive
Low growth and low rates to hit financial stability, says IMF
Weak outlook is likely to feed into medium-term problems for financial stability, fund warns; Basel Committee may have to delay agreement on final framework
RBI’s Mundra: pinning down credit-GDP link is tricky
Deputy governor says a host of factors combine to make the link between credit and growth unclear, but the link may reinstate itself as the economy stabilises
Don’t underestimate East Africa’s potential, says Sarb deputy
Eastern region of the continent benefitting from slower inflation and improved regulatory regime, Mminele says; “strict” fiscal discipline must be applied throughout the region
Fiscal policies the answer to commodity decline in Africa – BIS paper
Counter-cyclical policies have done all that they can, paper says, adding it is now time for exchange rate and fiscal policies to bear the burden and spur growth
Factors behind weak growth in advanced economies do not apply to South Africa – Sarb deputy
Mminele says 2008 recession did not create savings glut in South Africa, suggesting other factors such as a shortage of skills are responsible
Sarb governor fends off political criticism
Central bank would co-operate should inquiry into supervision powers be launched; monetary policy committee leaves rate on hold with the prospect of an end to the hiking cycle nearing
RBA’s Kent considers life after the mining boom
Australian economy is well into an adjustment, following the country’s mining investment boom; RBA correctly identified the patterns of adjustment, but was surprised by the magnitude
Co-ordinated effort needed to raise growth – Lagarde
IMF chief says all policy levers must be used to halt low growth; G20 also promised reforms to provide “growth impulse”
Time for private sector to take up economic reform baton – Jamaica’s Wynter
Fiscal and monetary authorities have played their part, and economic growth cannot be driven by the government, says Wynter
Book notes: The power of a single number, by Philipp Lepenies
Lepenies offers a brief but very readable treatment of GDP's political history, drawing out some important lessons in the process
Fiscal stimulus works even in debt-driven recessions – Cleveland Fed paper
Study uses defence spending to estimate fiscal multiplier, finding it is higher in areas with larger debt burdens, contrary to the fears of some economists
Reserve Bank of Australia governor backs 2–3% target in final address
Reserve Bank of Australia governor supports inflation-targeting regime in last public address; moving the target could open the door to further changes down the line, warns Stevens
BoE launches broad Brexit response
Central bank wields all its main tools and some new ones as the effects of Brexit begin to appear; aims to support transmission mechanism amid extraordinary measures