FOMC members’ narratives add value to projections, finds paper

Both staff and FOMC members' projections aid forecasting, refuting Romer and Romer

FOMC meeting January 2019
An FOMC meeting in January 2019

Federal Open Market Committee members’ evaluations improve GDP, unemployment and inflation forecasts, says new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The paper – The FOMC versus the staff: do policy-makers add value in their tales?, published August 30 – contrasts with an earlier study by Christina and David Romer of the University of California at Berkeley.

The Cleveland Fed researchers – Ilias Filippou, James Mitchell and My Nguyen – examined nearly 40 years of text from Fed

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact or view our subscription options here:

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Central Banking? View our subscription options

Register for Central Banking

All fields are mandatory unless otherwise highlighted

This address will be used to create your account

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account