Forecasting
BoJ sees emerging signs of inflation in Japan
Central bank says inflationary risks are now “generally balanced”
Economics Benchmarks 2021 report – executive summary
Covid-19 coloured central banks’ views on the governance of their economics function in the past year, from research topics to forecasting, data, publications and more
Fed’s Waller says federal funds rate should rise soon after QE ends
Fed governor hints at tighter policy and offers lessons from the pandemic
IMF mission to leave Brazil in June
Announcement follows criticism by finance minister of IMF forecasts
Economics Benchmarks 2021 report – making sense of the modern economy
Covid-19 coloured central banks’ views on the governance of their economics function in the past year, from research topics to forecasting, data, publications and more
Advanced economies draw on wider range of models
DSGE models and newer techniques more common at advanced economy central banks
The matter of minutes: Why open up private deliberations?
Many central banks publish records of MPC meetings, but far fewer publish vote tallies. Where should public scrutiny stop?
Quarterly forecast updates predominate
Frequency of forecasts varies more widely in emerging markets
Alternative data fuels central bank research
Important research areas include monetary transmission, exchange rates, digitisation, SMEs and climate change, against the backdrop of Covid
Pandemic spurred use of alternative data
Advanced and emerging market economies prioritise different applications
Currency Benchmarks 2021 report – executive summary
Perspectives on staffing, circulation, forecasting, note security and composition, outsourcing and more
Covid-19 causes bigger growth forecast errors
But central banks perform better at forecasting inflation
Economists tend to perform both policy and research duties
Only around a quarter of economics departments have a pure research function
Higher-denomination banknotes have longer lifespans
Median correlation was 0.9 across 22 central banks
Banknote demand forecast to rise in 2022
Median forecast percentage change was 7.6%, but ranged from -59% to 17%
Banknote forecasting with big data tools on the rise
Three-quarters of central bank currency departments yet to use big data
Poland raises policy rate by 75 basis points
National Bank cites high inflation, which it expects to linger through 2022
Forecaster surveys improve eurozone inflation modelling – ECB paper
Households’ and firms’ expectations do not provide useful data on inflation
IMF: growth prospects dim as pandemic lingers
Fund revises down growth forecasts, warning of inflation, disruption and divergence
Elizabeth Warren publicly rejects Powell reappointment
Senator calls Jerome Powell “a dangerous man to head up the Fed”
Brainard cites Delta in dovish speech
Fed governor warns “employment is still a bit short of the mark” for taper
BoJ deputy cautions against ‘premature tightening’
Core CPI is not the sole indicator of the BoJ’s monetary policy, says Wakatabe Masazumi
Majority of central banks do not take account of forecast errors
Surveys of inflationary expectations used widely, alongside macroeconomic and market indicators
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”