Brazil
Financial crises raise transmission of US spillovers to Latin America – paper
Central Bank of Colombia paper shows Brazil is a “net transmitter” of volatility; transmission of spillovers increases in times of political and financial uncertainty
Tombini remains amid Brazilian presidential overhaul
Central Bank of Brazil governor remains in post; new finance minister to keep him on for a transition period, analyst suggests, but new appointment could follow
Medium-sized banks are main contributors to systemic risk in Brazilian interbank market, paper says
Emergence of bank communities may act as triggers for systemic risk, stress test scenario shows; medium-sized banks carry non-negligible default probabilities
Fed QE drives portfolio rebalancing towards foreign assets, Brazil paper finds
Research analyses ‘comprehensive’ dataset for Brazilian capital flows and a smaller one for other EM economies
IMF paper examines effect of ‘winning the oil lottery’
Research into the impact of oil discovery in certain municipalities in Brazil shows GDP per capita and urbanisation on the rise
Central Bank of Brazil faces ‘policy dilemmas’
Tombini facing tough challenge as inflation rises into double figures while the IMF predicts deeper recession; observers divided on what comes next
BIS paper finds forecasters put too much faith in private information
‘Noisy information model’ of inflation forecasting implies forecasters put inefficient weightings on private information to differentiate themselves
Haircuts on sovereign debt ‘open the door for more leverage’, research finds
Prolonged low interest rates also contribute to an overleveraged economy in case of crisis; though in times of ‘low crisis’ they can help decelerate fiscal adjustment
Economists point to external woes as Central Bank of Brazil holds rates
Monetary policy committee leaves interest rate at 14.25% in surprise move; politics and fiscal policy making life harder for central bank, analysts suggest
IMF cuts global growth forecast on back of EM challenges
Maurice Obstfeld says emerging markets and developing economies account for more than two-thirds of revisions; largest changes come in Brazil, where the MPC meets today
Brazilian paper charts impact of inflation signal on expectations
Agents update forecasts immediately after new information is released and the impact of new information is dependent on ‘precision’, a working paper suggests
Monetary policy easing increases systemic risk-taking, paper finds
Brazilian domestic monetary policy is more statistically significant in this regard than foreign monetary policy, working paper suggests
Brazil will adopt ‘necessary measures’ to control inflation, says Tombini
Tombini tells finance minister he expects inflation to return to midpoint of target range by the end of 2017; Brazil inflation breaches 10% for 2015
Room for monetary policy stimulus has ‘narrowed’ in many EMs, World Bank report warns
Little room left to use monetary or fiscal stimulus in event of growth shock in some countries, report says, pointing to role for structural reform
Brazil private growth expectations slide further
Brazilian economy will contract by 3.62% this year with inflation breaching the 10% barrier, private institutions say
East African countries top Brookings table on inclusion
Study by think tank in Washington, DC, evaluates inclusion efforts in 21 diverse countries; Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda achieve high scores across categories
IMF economists release study on LTV and DTI limits in six countries
Working paper studies the implementation and effectiveness of loan-to-value and debt-service-to-income limits in Brazil, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Poland, Romania and South Korea
Central banks expect South American inflation to stabilise
Inflation rising in several countries in South America, but central bank heads in region suggest it will ‘moderate’ when supply shocks dissipate and exchange rates normalise
Central Bank of Brazil needs to battle inflation, says deputy-in-waiting
Progress in the fight against high inflation ‘is still not enough’, argues Tony Volpon, deputy governor nominee
Brazil’s inflation climbs to 8% despite rate hikes
Annual CPI inflation hit 8.13% in March, the highest since 2003, due to a double-digit hike in energy prices; central bank is expected to continue to raise interest rates
Central Bank of Brazil sees inflation gathering pace
Progress made in the fight against inflation is not yet ‘sufficient’, according to minutes from monetary policy committee meeting last week
Brazilian deputy picked as BIS deputy general manager
Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva to join the BIS as deputy general manager when Hervé Hannoun retires later this year
Brazil’s central bank launches financial education website
The Central Bank of Brazil wants to ‘get closer to the population’, thus launching a new website with contents, videos and online courses on financial education
Colombian paper analyses relationship between term premia in US and Latin America
Brazil and Colombia are the Latin American countries with the largest responses to changes in the US term premium, according to research published by the Central Bank of Colombia