BIS paper finds forecasters put too much faith in private information

Bank for International Settlements headquarters

Professional forecasters tend to put more weight on private information than is efficient, in an attempt to differentiate themselves from the competition, according to research published on February 2 by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Author Waldyr Areosa employs a "noisy information model" to study the strategic interactions of forecasters in the working paper What drives inflation expectations in Brazil. Areosa studies around 10,000 private estimates of Brazil's inflation from

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