Central Banking
Market fears endanger Italian and Portuguese bank sell-offs
Recent measures by the Bank of Portugal, as well as market fears about the quality of Italian banks’ assets, may discourage investors from buying Italian and Portuguese bridge banks
Monetary policy less effective than structural reform, Davos panellists argue
Structural reform is more effective than monetary or fiscal policy in current conditions, Axel Weber and Raghuram Rajan agree; Weber foresees four Fed rate rises but thinks markets disagree
Observers cast doubt on first Venezuelan inflation figures in a year
Central bank report puts annual inflation at 141% at end of September, after a year without publishing the data; some consider the figure to be too conservative
BoJ regional research divisions see ‘moderate’ recovery
Nine regions report the economy has ‘continued to grow’, often at a ‘moderate’ pace, in the past three months; some note impact from emerging markets slowdown on exports and production
IMF paper seeks to capture complexity of financial development in new index
Research presents six ‘subindices’ measuring the depth, accessibility and efficiency of financial institutions and markets, which are rolled into an ‘overall measure of financial development’
ECB paper quantifies spillover from sovereign to corporate credit risk
Research studies direct spillover effects using credit default swaps and data on 226 firms from 15 European countries in aftermath of first Greek bail-out
Iranian banks may reconnect to Swift as sanctions lift
Reconnection ends four-year exclusion from the global payments messaging service and should make sending international payments considerably less costly
US, China trends put Hong Kong in potential tough spot, warns IMF report
Housing prices have tripled since 2008 and could face correction as result of slowdown prompted by outside pressures
Bundesbank paper explores interbank market functionality during crisis
The German interbank market did not fail, per se, in the 2007-8 financial crisis, a Bundesbank discussion paper argues; bank fundamentals determined ability to roll over interbank positions
French governor weighs up ‘disruptive effects’ in card payments market
François Villeroy de Galhau discusses ‘main trends’ influencing card payments market, including ‘new solutions, new behaviours and players, new regulations’
Independent review calls for major changes at Riksbank
Riksbank criticised for reliance on models, board members’ quarrels and ‘surreal’ monetary guidance, though King and Goodfriend say it is ‘clearly a success’ compared with past regimes
Fewer counterfeit banknotes withdrawn in Portugal in 2015
Statistics released by Bank of Portugal reveal a drop in the number of counterfeits withdrawn from circulation last year; the €20 remains the most frequently faked denomination
Carney says UK rate hike still some way off
Continued weakness in key indicators begins to puzzle policy-makers as Carney suggests there is room for the MPC to wait longer; CPI and core inflation on the rise
IMF cuts global growth forecast on back of EM challenges
Maurice Obstfeld says emerging markets and developing economies account for more than two-thirds of revisions; largest changes come in Brazil, where the MPC meets today
ONS to launch new website in response to review
The new site will draw on feedback from more than 600 people; US Fred model is something to strive for, says the deputy national statistician for economic statistics
Bank of England's Vlieghe wants more nuanced approach to monetary policy
Bank of England policy-maker says high levels of debt, ageing population and distribution of income combine to make him ‘patient' about rate hike; questions modelling based on representative agents
ECB's Mersch considers hurdles to single payments area for cards
European payment card schemes and processors must address issues of standardisation, security and interoperability to create an effective single payments area, Yves Mersch says
Argentina to issue three new banknote denominations
Top-value 100-peso note to be eclipsed by new currency; 200- and 500-peso notes will launch in first half of 2016, with 1000 peso note following in 2017
Bank of Italy outlines downside risks as inflation falls
Annual HICP inflation fell to 0.1% according to December estimate, just below eurozone average; Bank of Italy warns that international situation poses ‘significant risks’ to European recovery
Croatia makes it 25 central banks in Target2
The Croatian National Bank will, along with 24 commercial banks in the country, participate in the RTGS system from February 1, making it the fifth central bank outside the eurozone to join
Central banks struggling to exit ‘confused period’, economists say
The financial crisis forced a regime change on central banks, raising challenges to independence, analysis and policy tools, which have yet to be fully resolved, say panellists in Brussels
Paper finds positive impact from Dodd-Frank swap rules
Compulsory trading via swap execution facilities has boosted liquidity and cut trading costs in the market for interest rate swaps, working paper published by BoE finds
New York Fed president keeping eye on expectations
William Dudley expects inflation expectations to increase if the economy keeps growing at an above-trend pace, but any deviation could be cause for concern
Zeti warns of ‘immense' challenges in 2016
Bank Negara Malaysia governor warns of potentially persistent threats to long-term growth at the AFF conference in Hong Kong, but sees a silver lining if policy-makers get it right