Research
BoE research offers insights from new regulatory database
The new database, comprising banks’ regulatory submissions, allows authors to shed new light on the evolution of the UK banking sector in recent decades
New factors driving EM corporate leverage – RBI paper
Changed macroeconomic backdrop has taken over from firm-specific factors in driving the build-up of corporate leverage in emerging markets, RBI economist finds
Encouraging creation of ‘quasi-safe assets’ may be destabilising, paper argues
Investors have distinct “safety demand”, researchers argue
Policy intervention helps economies escape ‘stagnation traps’ – paper
Research published by ECB explains how “pessimistic expectations” can lead to low employment and growth, dampening investment; countercyclical subsidies could be the answer
IMF research uncovers ‘puzzling’ effect of QE on the current account
Authors see QE having significant impact only when capital mobility is low; findings suggest “unexplained variation” between QE and capital mobility
Spanish paper proposes new measures for economic recoveries
Researchers apply new tests to data on US post-war expansions
RBNZ paper sets out new house price indexes
Improved dataset allows design of three new indexes, all of which produce “credible-looking” outcomes
IMF authors examine conditions for structural reform success
Most labour and product market reforms strengthen medium-term output and fiscal sustainability, but they may be painful to implement in some parts of the cycle
Foreign bank branches show more volatile lending – Norges Bank commentary
Foreign branches may be subject to lower capital requirements, giving them a competitive edge but also making their lending growth more volatile
Central banks’ liquidity injections may amplify bank runs, paper argues
ESRB paper looks at 2008 US crisis using simple model of bank runs
IMF paper offers new ways of measuring capital flow volatility
Authors say more granular dataset and three different methods of calculating capital flow volatility allow them to gain new insights
Loan-to-credit ratios affected stability of smaller German banks – paper
Bundesbank researchers look at data on “critical events” from 1995 to 2013
BIS authors spot structural break in bank financing
Research identifies turning point in how banks fund themselves around 2008, with greater reliance on branches and subsidiaries
EU stress tests should revise banking income assumptions, ECB paper argues
Fee and commission income likely to decrease more under “adverse” scenario, researchers say
BoE paper isolates loan supply impact of credit crunch
“Rich, tailor-made data set” informs study of how pre-crisis bank lending characteristics may have impacted post-crisis credit supply
ECB paper models effects of bank guarantees
Guarantees improve welfare by increasing liquidity transformation, researchers find
ECB announcements in QE era shifted inflation expectations, Austrian paper finds
Researchers use daily data on bond yields and inflation-linked swaps
Finnish paper analyses Chinese central bank’s ‘window guidance’
PBoC may have to move away from using lending quotas, researchers argue
RBA paper assesses FOMC’s forecasting performance
RBA and Fed economists collaborate on study of forecasting errors by the Federal Open Market Committee
Interest rate effects weaker at low levels – Borio and Gambacorta
Supply of loans becomes less responsive to policy rate movements when interest rates are already very low, likely due to impact on bank profits, authors say
Bank of Spain paper calculates implicit public debt thresholds
Researchers build on earlier work and apply models to Spanish data
Basel capital surcharges are too low – Fed paper
Authors argue current Basel standards are not enough to guard against the failure of a global bank, particularly those reliant on short-term funding
Bank of Italy paper looks at impact of monetary policy shocks
The impacts of eurozone and US shocks have diverged since the onset of the financial crisis, the working paper says
BoE paper raises risk of ‘bubbly growth traps’
Asset bubbles can direct resources to low-productivity sectors, which could explain the long hangover from recent crises, author says