Research
Eurozone countries’ manufacturing sectors are diverging, Italian paper finds
Manufacturing profits rise relative to non-tradables in Germany and Spain, but fall in France and Italy
Public debt in EU countries harms growth, ECB paper argues
Researchers find public debt crowds out investment but private debt is used efficiently
Fed paper studies inequality in three dimensions
Authors find examining three dimensions simultaneously gives new insights
Colombian paper says resolution co-operation is needed in the region
Authors examine how resolution plans have evolved and conclude more work can be done with regard to local systemically important financial institutions and cross-border activities
Demographic changes reduce US labour participation rate
As the baby boomer generation retires, the recovery cannot offset their absence
Economists are misinterpreting ‘Triffin dilemma’, says BIS paper
Michael Bordo and Robert McCauley argue there was nothing certain about the collapse of Bretton Woods, but Triffin’s successful prediction led others to mistakenly reapply his theory
Danish central bank dismisses central bank digital currency
Digital instrument would not make current payment system more efficient, says report, adding introducing such a currency would pit the central bank against commercial institutions
Monetary regimes drive real rates, BIS paper finds
Claudio Borio et al study data going back to 1870 in search of factors pushing down real rates
Fed paper sets out model of financial panics
Mark Gertler, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Andrea Prestipino examine banking panics in a DSGE model
Macro-pru tools helped offset taper tantrum – paper
Macro-prudential measures helped reduce the impact on cross-border lending growth, say authors
UK households pessimistic about fortunes in 2018
Survey published by BoE reveals UK households do not expect an improvement in their financial positions in the coming year
Public spending cuts have bigger multiplier than fiscal stimulus – paper
Research weakens case for expansionary policies, say authors
Paper looks at EU attempt to increase capital supply to SMEs
Measure introduced in CRR has benefited medium but not small businesses, researchers say
Credit no longer supporting Chinese growth – research
China’s economy has become “saturated with credit”, argues IMF research paper, with fiscal stimulus primarily boosting manufacturing
Demography, tech reduce US natural unemployment rate – paper
Baby boomers remain active longer, and older workers record lower levels of unemployment
Early asset purchases much more successful – BIS paper
Authors find effectiveness falls over time as the shock wears off, questioning the value of long-running quantitative easing
Financial distress in the US is concentrated in a small percentage of consumers
Around 10% of consumers account for 50% of all distress events, research finds
Denmark ‘not heading for cashless society’ – research
Central bank recognises cash transactions are in decline, but says consumers will always have the option to pay with cash
Quick action needed to tackle housing busts – RBNZ paper
Paper studies housing busts around the world and how best to respond to them
High private debt imperils financial stability in Norway, research finds
Households most at risk of shrinking their expenditure account for 50% of private consumption
BoE paper lays out ‘financial conditions index’ for UK
Index proves valuable as a summary measure and also as an input to forecasting
Paper: foreign fund inflows raised US pre-crisis risk-taking
The Bank of Italy paper correlates data on foreign inflows with four indicators of risk
BIS paper examines how banks use credit default swaps
Banks use CDS for position taking as well as insurance, but there is little evidence of their use to circumvent capital rules
Small open economies benefit from QE spillovers – IMF paper
Fed’s QE had a similar net positive effect in Canada to that in the US