Research
ECB Monthly Bulletin, January 2004
The European Central Bank published its January 2004 Monthly Bulletin on 22 January. In the report the ECB spelt out its concern over currency volatility but showed no sign it might change its outlook for a gradual economic upturn in the eurozone.
Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Update
The Bank of Canada released its Update to the October Monetary Policy Reporton 22 January. The report discusses economic and financial trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy.
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Jan 2004
The recent improvement in the region's manufacturing sector continued into the new year, according to the firms surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, January 2004.
Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book, January 2004
The Federal Reserve released its January 2004 survey of Current Economic Conditions, known as the Beige Book, on 14 January. The survey suggested the rebound in the U.S. economy is gaining momentum, fuelled by last-minute holiday shopping in December.
Bank of Japan semi-annual monetary report
Japan's economic activity remained virtually flat in the first half of fiscal 2003, the Bank of Japan's Semi-annual Report on Currency and Monetary Control showed.
Sources of exchange rate fluctuations in S Africa
IMF Working Paper on the "Sources of Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations in South Africa" published December 2003.
St Louis Fed's Regional Economist, January 2004
The Quarterly Review of Business and Economic Conditions, The Regional Economist, January edition from the St Louis Fed includes the article "Another jobless recovery" which asks whether the U.S. economy is undergoing fundamental changes.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Dec 2003
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published its quarterly Bulletin for December 2003. The December issue of the Bulletin contains three articles, and two speeches delivered over recent months by the Bank's Governor.
RBA reseach paper on the Phillips curve
The Reserve bank of Australia has issued a research discussion paper on the real-time forecasting performance of the Phillips curve.
Predicting euro-area recessions
This ECB working paper looks at the informational content of the slope of theyield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area.
International Research Forum on monetary policy
The second conference organised by the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy was held at the Federal Reserve Board on November 14-15, 2003.
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Winter 2003
The Bank of England released its Quarterly Bulletin, Winter 2003, on 19 December. Among articles included in the Bulletin are "The distribution of unsecured debt in the United Kingdom: survey evidence," "The macroeconomic impact of revitalising the…
Bank of Canada Financial System Review, Dec 2003
The Bank of Canada published its semi-annual Financial System Review on 17 December. An improving economic environment and a stabilization in corporate credit quality have contributed to better results for financial institutions, it said. The risks…
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, December 2003
The Bank of Japan published the English version of its December 2003 Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments on 18 December. The BoJ said that it expects the Japanese economy to continue its export-led recovery at a slow pace. "Japan…
Bank of England MPC Minutes 3/4 December 2003
Minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee Meeting were released on 17 December for the meeting of 3 and 4 December 2003. Eight members of the MPC thought that rates should remain at 3.75 per cent while Sir Andrew Large, one of the Bank…
ECB Monthly Bulletin, December 2003
The European Central Bank published its December 2003 Monthly Bulletin on 11 December. The ECB maintained its forecast for 2003 inflation at 2.1pc, but lowered its forecast for 2005 inflation to 1.6pc from 1.7pc. But it repeated that official interest…
Bank of England Financial Stability Review, Dec 03
The Bank of England published its latest Financial Stability Review for December 2003 on Thursday 11 December. It contains the Bank's regular half-yearly review of risks to financial stability and measures taken to strengthen the financial infrastructure…
Growth down inflation up, predicts ECB
The European Central Bank's December monthly report released on Thursday 11 December increased its inflation forecasts for 2004 to a range of between 1.3 - 2.3 per cent for the euro area, reports EUpolitix, a figure revised significantly upwards from the…
Philadelphia Fed Business Review, 4th Quarter 2003
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has published its regular Business Review for the Fourth Quarter 2003. In the latest issue President Santomero outlines what the Federal Reserve is doing to promote economic education and explains why knowledge is…
Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book, November 2003
The Federal Reserve released its November 2003 survey of Current Economic Conditions, known as the Beige Book, on 26 November. The survey said the US economy is now in a broad-based expansion. "Reports received from the district banks suggest that the…
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, November 2003
The Bank of Japan published the English version of its November 2003 Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments on 26 November. The Report said the economy was recovering - effectively upgrading its assessment for the third straight…
Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, October 2003
The Deutsche Bundesbank has published the English version of its October 2003 monthly report. Seasonally adjusted industrial output in August was down on the month, July having produced a high figure, the Report said. The slight rise in consumer prices…
Survey of Professional Forecasters
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published its Fourth Quarter 2003 Survey of Professional Forecasters on 24 November. Forecasters gain optimism about 2004 - The outlook for growth over the next few quarters looks stronger now than it did just…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, October 2003
CFNAI indicates economy continued to grow in October - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) released 20 November was +0.01 in October, a small decline from the September reading of +0.16.