Research
ECB Monthly Bulletin, November 2003
The European Central Bank published its November 2003 Monthly Bulletin on 13 November. This issue of the Monthly Bulletin contains three articles. The first reviews the main developments in the debt financing of the euro area private sector over recent…
IMF: Interest rates in low rate environment
This IMF Working Paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment. It applies a time-series method to high-frequency Japanese data, the term-structure model is found to be useful for…
Bank of England Inflation Report, November 2003
The Bank of England published its quarterly Inflation Report for November 2003 on Wednesday 12 November. In the report the Bank forecast that growth in the UK would pick up to just under 3 per cent next year, and would be "marginally above trend" over…
Publication of study on the euro area money market
In the context of the regular monitoring activities of the European System of Central Banks, experts from the European Central Bank and from the national central banks of the European Union have carried out an analysis of euro area money market…
BIS publishes OTC Derivatives Market Statistics
The BIS released on Wednesday 12 November its semiannual statistics on positions in the global OTC derivatives market for end-June 2003. The statistics cover the notional amounts and gross market values outstanding of the worldwide consolidated OTC…
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2003
The Reserve Bank of Australia released its November 2003 Statement on Monetary Policy on 10 November. The RBA said it expects inflation to fall in the short term as the higher $A flows through to import prices, but then sees it picking it up again to…
The Canadian Phillips curve and regime shifting
This Bank of Canada Working Paper looks at the recent criticism of linear models of inflation for their poor forecasting performance, given that Phillips curves are usually estimated with linearity assumptions. Using two methodologies the Paper strongly…
Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, Nov/Dec 2003
The latest edition of the St Louis Fed's Review for November-December 2003 includes an article by St Louis Fed President William Poole "Fed Transparency: How, Not Whether", "Burgernomics: A Big Mac Guide to Purchasing Power Parity", and "Banking…
Norges Bank Inflation Report, October 2003
Norway's central bank, Norges Bank, has published its latest Inflation Report for October 2003. The report contains a review of developments in the Norwegian economy and other factors that influence the inflation outlook.
Dallas Fed's 'Free to Choose' conference papers
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's recent conference, "The Legacy of Milton and Rose Friedman's 'Free to Choose': Economic Liberalism at the Turn of the 21st Century" covered a broad spectrum of topics related to economic freedom, including Allan…
Cleveland's Low-Inflation Economies Conference
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Central Bank Institute is holding a conference and workshop titled "Low-Inflation Economies" from 19-21 November. The agenda includes papers titled "The Efficiency of Inflation Targeting" and "Monetary Policy…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index September 2003
The latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2003 was published on 30 October. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.20 in September, a sharp rebound from the downward revised August reading of -0.40.
Sveriges Riksbank Inflation Report, No.3, 2003
Sweden's central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank, has published its Third Inflation Report for 2003. All in all, the Riksbank's assessment is that there is a risk that international economic activity will lead to lower inflation than in the main scenario…
Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report, Oct 2003
The Bank of Canada has released its Monetary Policy Report for October 2003. Since the April Report, the Canadian economy has been hit by a number of unusual shocks: SARS, BSE, the Ontario electricity blackout, and the severe forest fires in British…
Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, September 2003
The Deutsche Bundesbank published the English version of its September 2003 monthly report on 21 October. The German economy remained on a path of stagnation in the second quarter of 2003, the report says. Despite a number of positive signals, major…
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Sep 2003
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand published its quarterly Bulletin for September 2003. Among the articles is an annual review of developments affecting New Zealand's financial stability. In the review the RBNZ concludes that New Zealand's financial sector…
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Oct 2003
Activity in the region's manufacturing sector improved in October, according to firms polled for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, October 2003. Most of the current indicators increased this month, the report finds, and manufacturers' six…
Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book, October 2003
The Federal Reserve Beige Book released on 15 October suggests that, on balance, the pace of economic expansion has picked up since the last report. Ten of the twelve districts indicate that activity has been expanding, while two--Boston and Cleveland-…
Central Banks and Supreme Courts by C Goodhart
This Working Paper from the Financial Markets Group claims that a significant, large part of the reason for the differing procedures of the legal and monetary policy bodies in the UK, USA, and EU derives from a political science root. How do you deal…
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, October 2003
The Bank of Japan published the English version of its Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments, October 2003, on 17 October. The foundation for a gradual recovery in Japan's economy is being laid, as the environment for exports and…
Monetary policy in a changing environment
This was the theme of a series of papers presented at the Autumn Central Bank Economists' Meeting held at the BIS in Basel on 14-15 October 2002. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss challenges that central banks have faced in the current…
ECB Monthly Bulletin, October 2003
The European Central Bank published its October 2003 Monthly Bulletin on 9 October. The report said for the near future, risks to the main scenario of a gradual recovery appear to be broadly balanced. However, some risks to the sustainability of economic…
'The Region' : Minneapolis Fed September 2003
The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has published its regular magazine, The Region, for September 2003. The issue includes an interview with Allan H. Meltzer, author of A History of the Federal Reserve and architect of the Shadow Open Market…
Improving monetary policy with inflation targets
In the Bank of Canada Working Paper "A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets?" the authors evaluate whether an assortment of simple rules could improve how the Bank of Canada implements…