Research
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Dec 2003
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has published its quarterly Bulletin for December 2003. The December issue of the Bulletin contains three articles, and two speeches delivered over recent months by the Bank's Governor.
RBA reseach paper on the Phillips curve
The Reserve bank of Australia has issued a research discussion paper on the real-time forecasting performance of the Phillips curve.
Predicting euro-area recessions
This ECB working paper looks at the informational content of the slope of theyield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area.
International Research Forum on monetary policy
The second conference organised by the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy was held at the Federal Reserve Board on November 14-15, 2003.
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Winter 2003
The Bank of England released its Quarterly Bulletin, Winter 2003, on 19 December. Among articles included in the Bulletin are "The distribution of unsecured debt in the United Kingdom: survey evidence," "The macroeconomic impact of revitalising the…
Bank of Canada Financial System Review, Dec 2003
The Bank of Canada published its semi-annual Financial System Review on 17 December. An improving economic environment and a stabilization in corporate credit quality have contributed to better results for financial institutions, it said. The risks…
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, December 2003
The Bank of Japan published the English version of its December 2003 Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments on 18 December. The BoJ said that it expects the Japanese economy to continue its export-led recovery at a slow pace. "Japan…
Bank of England MPC Minutes 3/4 December 2003
Minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee Meeting were released on 17 December for the meeting of 3 and 4 December 2003. Eight members of the MPC thought that rates should remain at 3.75 per cent while Sir Andrew Large, one of the Bank…
ECB Monthly Bulletin, December 2003
The European Central Bank published its December 2003 Monthly Bulletin on 11 December. The ECB maintained its forecast for 2003 inflation at 2.1pc, but lowered its forecast for 2005 inflation to 1.6pc from 1.7pc. But it repeated that official interest…
Bank of England Financial Stability Review, Dec 03
The Bank of England published its latest Financial Stability Review for December 2003 on Thursday 11 December. It contains the Bank's regular half-yearly review of risks to financial stability and measures taken to strengthen the financial infrastructure…
Growth down inflation up, predicts ECB
The European Central Bank's December monthly report released on Thursday 11 December increased its inflation forecasts for 2004 to a range of between 1.3 - 2.3 per cent for the euro area, reports EUpolitix, a figure revised significantly upwards from the…
Philadelphia Fed Business Review, 4th Quarter 2003
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has published its regular Business Review for the Fourth Quarter 2003. In the latest issue President Santomero outlines what the Federal Reserve is doing to promote economic education and explains why knowledge is…
Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book, November 2003
The Federal Reserve released its November 2003 survey of Current Economic Conditions, known as the Beige Book, on 26 November. The survey said the US economy is now in a broad-based expansion. "Reports received from the district banks suggest that the…
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, November 2003
The Bank of Japan published the English version of its November 2003 Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments on 26 November. The Report said the economy was recovering - effectively upgrading its assessment for the third straight…
Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, October 2003
The Deutsche Bundesbank has published the English version of its October 2003 monthly report. Seasonally adjusted industrial output in August was down on the month, July having produced a high figure, the Report said. The slight rise in consumer prices…
Survey of Professional Forecasters
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published its Fourth Quarter 2003 Survey of Professional Forecasters on 24 November. Forecasters gain optimism about 2004 - The outlook for growth over the next few quarters looks stronger now than it did just…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, October 2003
CFNAI indicates economy continued to grow in October - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) released 20 November was +0.01 in October, a small decline from the September reading of +0.16.
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Nov 2003
Activity in the region's manufacturing sector continues to expand, according to the firms surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, November 2003. The manufacturers remain optimistic about activity over the next six months.
RBA Paper: Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy
Research Discussion Paper from the Reserve Bank of Australia titled "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-price Bubbles?", November 2003. The paper uses a simple model where optimal monetary policy can be derived by either including or excluding…
Bank of Canada Review, Autumn 2003
The Bank of Canada published its Review for Autumn 2003 on 13 November. The Review includes articles titled "An Evaluation of Fixed Announcement Dates" "Recent Labour Market Developments in Canada" and "Developments, Issues, and Initiatives in Retail…
ECB publishes results of its bank lending survey
The European Central Bank published the report on the results of the October 2003 bank lending survey for the euro area on 13 November. The bank lending survey has been developed by the Eurosystem in order to enhance the understanding of bank lending…
ECB Monthly Bulletin, November 2003
The European Central Bank published its November 2003 Monthly Bulletin on 13 November. This issue of the Monthly Bulletin contains three articles. The first reviews the main developments in the debt financing of the euro area private sector over recent…
IMF: Interest rates in low rate environment
This IMF Working Paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment. It applies a time-series method to high-frequency Japanese data, the term-structure model is found to be useful for…
Bank of England Inflation Report, November 2003
The Bank of England published its quarterly Inflation Report for November 2003 on Wednesday 12 November. In the report the Bank forecast that growth in the UK would pick up to just under 3 per cent next year, and would be "marginally above trend" over…