Research
Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book, November 2003
The Federal Reserve released its November 2003 survey of Current Economic Conditions, known as the Beige Book, on 26 November. The survey said the US economy is now in a broad-based expansion. "Reports received from the district banks suggest that the…
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, November 2003
The Bank of Japan published the English version of its November 2003 Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments on 26 November. The Report said the economy was recovering - effectively upgrading its assessment for the third straight…
Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, October 2003
The Deutsche Bundesbank has published the English version of its October 2003 monthly report. Seasonally adjusted industrial output in August was down on the month, July having produced a high figure, the Report said. The slight rise in consumer prices…
Survey of Professional Forecasters
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published its Fourth Quarter 2003 Survey of Professional Forecasters on 24 November. Forecasters gain optimism about 2004 - The outlook for growth over the next few quarters looks stronger now than it did just…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, October 2003
CFNAI indicates economy continued to grow in October - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) released 20 November was +0.01 in October, a small decline from the September reading of +0.16.
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Nov 2003
Activity in the region's manufacturing sector continues to expand, according to the firms surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, November 2003. The manufacturers remain optimistic about activity over the next six months.
RBA Paper: Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy
Research Discussion Paper from the Reserve Bank of Australia titled "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-price Bubbles?", November 2003. The paper uses a simple model where optimal monetary policy can be derived by either including or excluding…
Bank of Canada Review, Autumn 2003
The Bank of Canada published its Review for Autumn 2003 on 13 November. The Review includes articles titled "An Evaluation of Fixed Announcement Dates" "Recent Labour Market Developments in Canada" and "Developments, Issues, and Initiatives in Retail…
ECB publishes results of its bank lending survey
The European Central Bank published the report on the results of the October 2003 bank lending survey for the euro area on 13 November. The bank lending survey has been developed by the Eurosystem in order to enhance the understanding of bank lending…
ECB Monthly Bulletin, November 2003
The European Central Bank published its November 2003 Monthly Bulletin on 13 November. This issue of the Monthly Bulletin contains three articles. The first reviews the main developments in the debt financing of the euro area private sector over recent…
IMF: Interest rates in low rate environment
This IMF Working Paper empirically evaluates the validity of the term structure of interest rates in a low-interest-rate environment. It applies a time-series method to high-frequency Japanese data, the term-structure model is found to be useful for…
Bank of England Inflation Report, November 2003
The Bank of England published its quarterly Inflation Report for November 2003 on Wednesday 12 November. In the report the Bank forecast that growth in the UK would pick up to just under 3 per cent next year, and would be "marginally above trend" over…
Publication of study on the euro area money market
In the context of the regular monitoring activities of the European System of Central Banks, experts from the European Central Bank and from the national central banks of the European Union have carried out an analysis of euro area money market…
BIS publishes OTC Derivatives Market Statistics
The BIS released on Wednesday 12 November its semiannual statistics on positions in the global OTC derivatives market for end-June 2003. The statistics cover the notional amounts and gross market values outstanding of the worldwide consolidated OTC…
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2003
The Reserve Bank of Australia released its November 2003 Statement on Monetary Policy on 10 November. The RBA said it expects inflation to fall in the short term as the higher $A flows through to import prices, but then sees it picking it up again to…
The Canadian Phillips curve and regime shifting
This Bank of Canada Working Paper looks at the recent criticism of linear models of inflation for their poor forecasting performance, given that Phillips curves are usually estimated with linearity assumptions. Using two methodologies the Paper strongly…
Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, Nov/Dec 2003
The latest edition of the St Louis Fed's Review for November-December 2003 includes an article by St Louis Fed President William Poole "Fed Transparency: How, Not Whether", "Burgernomics: A Big Mac Guide to Purchasing Power Parity", and "Banking…
Norges Bank Inflation Report, October 2003
Norway's central bank, Norges Bank, has published its latest Inflation Report for October 2003. The report contains a review of developments in the Norwegian economy and other factors that influence the inflation outlook.
Dallas Fed's 'Free to Choose' conference papers
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's recent conference, "The Legacy of Milton and Rose Friedman's 'Free to Choose': Economic Liberalism at the Turn of the 21st Century" covered a broad spectrum of topics related to economic freedom, including Allan…
Cleveland's Low-Inflation Economies Conference
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Central Bank Institute is holding a conference and workshop titled "Low-Inflation Economies" from 19-21 November. The agenda includes papers titled "The Efficiency of Inflation Targeting" and "Monetary Policy…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index September 2003
The latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2003 was published on 30 October. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.20 in September, a sharp rebound from the downward revised August reading of -0.40.
Sveriges Riksbank Inflation Report, No.3, 2003
Sweden's central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank, has published its Third Inflation Report for 2003. All in all, the Riksbank's assessment is that there is a risk that international economic activity will lead to lower inflation than in the main scenario…
Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report, Oct 2003
The Bank of Canada has released its Monetary Policy Report for October 2003. Since the April Report, the Canadian economy has been hit by a number of unusual shocks: SARS, BSE, the Ontario electricity blackout, and the severe forest fires in British…
Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, September 2003
The Deutsche Bundesbank published the English version of its September 2003 monthly report on 21 October. The German economy remained on a path of stagnation in the second quarter of 2003, the report says. Despite a number of positive signals, major…