Research
Monetary policy in a changing environment
This was the theme of a series of papers presented at the Autumn Central Bank Economists' Meeting held at the BIS in Basel on 14-15 October 2002. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss challenges that central banks have faced in the current…
ECB Monthly Bulletin, October 2003
The European Central Bank published its October 2003 Monthly Bulletin on 9 October. The report said for the near future, risks to the main scenario of a gradual recovery appear to be broadly balanced. However, some risks to the sustainability of economic…
'The Region' : Minneapolis Fed September 2003
The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has published its regular magazine, The Region, for September 2003. The issue includes an interview with Allan H. Meltzer, author of A History of the Federal Reserve and architect of the Shadow Open Market…
Improving monetary policy with inflation targets
In the Bank of Canada Working Paper "A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets?" the authors evaluate whether an assortment of simple rules could improve how the Bank of Canada implements…
Bond markets and long-term interest rates
The European Central Bank published the second edition of a report entitled "Bond markets and long-term interest rates in European Union accession countries" on 6 October. This update presents the results of a recent survey, which was designed jointly by…
Payment systems in Russia
The Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) has published, under the aegis of the Bank for International Settlements, a reference work on payment systems in Russia, known as the Red Book. As part of this series, the Foreword says, the first…
Inflation differentials in the euro area
The European Central Bank has published a report entitled "Inflation differentials in the euro area: potential causes and policy implications" prepared by the Monetary Policy Committee of the European System of Central Banks. The report analyses the size…
Philadelphia Fed Business Review, 3rd Quarter 2003
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has published its regular Business Review for the Third Quarter 2003. In the first article President Santomero examines whether inflation targeting makes sense for the U.S. Other articles examine changes in the…
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Autumn 2003
The Bank of England released its Quarterly Bulletin, Autumn 2003, on 26 September. The Bulletin includes articles titled 'Public expectations of UK inflation' and 'The optimal rate of inflation: an academic perspective'. The report also warns that…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, August 2003
The latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August 2003 was published on 25 September indicates that economic activity slowed in August. The CFNAI was -0.28 in August, a deterioration from the upward revised July reading of +0.05.
Information acquisition & decisions in committees
This ECB Working Paper is a survey of the recent game theoretic literature on committee decision making. It considers theoretical work on the role of (i) strategic voting, (ii) costly information acquisition, (iii) conflicting interests, and (iv)…
St Louis Fed's Central Banker, Fall 2003
The Fall 2003 edition of the St. Louis Fed's Central Banker magazine has been published. The latest issue carries a report on what community bankers said at a recent meeting with the St. Louis Fed and other regulatory agencies on reducing regulatory…
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Sep 2003
Manufacturing firms reported an increase in new orders in September according to firms surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, September 2003. New orders and shipments grew again this month, but employment declined, the survey said.
IMF says PMA not a central bank yet
The IMF has said in a press conference that the Palestine Monetary Authority is "not a central bank yet in that their role really is, at the present time, confined to banking supervision and also the holding of required reserves to banks operating in…
G10 ministers and CB governors meet in Dubai
Ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Ten met in Dubai and despite an improvement in the overall economic outlook, drew attention to the "significant internal and external imbalances that persist, which could weigh on the sustainability of…
IMFC statement on IMF and the global economy
Communique of the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the IMF Board of Governors which highlights the importance of "more balanced growth with orderly adjustment", "sustained and vigorous structural reforms" and "continued focus by the IMF…
Euro economic growth on pause
The euro area economy is stagnant but not in recession - yet - according to a new CEPR committee set up to date the euro-area business cycle. The committee seeks to emulate the NBER in the US, which has performed a similar role since 1980. Using data…
Transcript of the IMF's WEO press conference
Transcript of the IMF's September 2003 World Economic Outlook press conference in Dubai. Ken Rogoff, the IMF's Director of Research, says that "For the first time in a very long time we are reasonably optimistic about seeing a return to normal growth in…
IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2003
The International Monetary Fund published its twice yearly World Economic Outlook report for September 2003 on 18 September. The report says the global economy is showing signs of improvement, but the pace and strength of the recovery remain uncertain…
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, September 2003
The Bank of Japan published the English version of its Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments, September 2003, on 17 September. "Turning to the economic outlook, with respect to overseas economies, the likelihood is gradually…
BIS Working Paper on currency crises
This paper modifies the Morris-Shin theoretical framework of financial crises by allowing prices to adjust freely to market conditions. It is then shown that all of the appealing characteristics of that setup are preserved even when public information…
Bank of England Inflation Attitudes Survey, Aug 03
The Bank of England's August 2003 quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey was published on 15 September. Median expectations of inflation over the coming year were 2.2%, up from 2.0% in May. Respondents were asked to assess the way the Bank of England is …
HKMA Quarterly Bulletin, September 2003
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) on September 15 published the latest issue of its Quarterly Bulletin. This issue contains feature articles including "The Profitability of the Banking Sector in Hong Kong" - analysing the evolution of profitability…
ECB Monthly Bulletin, September 2003
The European Central Bank published its September 2003 Monthly Bulletin on 11 September. The report said recent data confirm that economic activity in the euro area was very weak in the second quarter of 2003, with a slight decline in real GDP according…