Research
ECB Monthly Bulletin, June 2004
The European Central Bank published its June 2004 Monthly Bulletin on 10 June. The report said the recovery in euro area economic growth is expected to continue over the coming quarters, leading to a broader and stronger upswing in the course of next…
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, June 2004
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased the Official Cash Rate from 5.5 to 5.75 per cent on 10 June. Speaking at the release of the Reserve Bank's June 2004 Monetary Policy Statement, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said "The New Zealand economy has…
Federal Reserve Bulletin, Spring 2004
The Federal Reserve published its Bulletin for Spring 2004 on 9 June. The Bulletin includes a summary of papers presented at the second Conference of the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy. Among the topics examined were the Great Inflation…
Inflation convergence across countries
OECD countries with a history of high inflation before the 1990s were shown to have subsequently experienced a larger degree of disinflation than countries with a history of low inflation. This RBA discussion paper explores further this phenomenon of…
IMF paper on interest rates/ currency pegs
This IMF working paper studies a policy often used to defend a currency peg: raising short-term interest rates. A key implication of the model is that an interest rate defense can always be successful, but has great costs for domestic agents. Hence, it…
Fed Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, May/Jun 2004
In the latest edition of the St Louis Fed's Review for May-June 2004, Fed economists Kevin Kliesen and Frank Schmid examine how announced changes in monetary policy actions and macroeconomic data releases affect the average rate of inflation that…
Sveriges Riksbank, Financial Stability Report
Sweden's central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank, published its first Financial Stability Report for 2004 on 2 June. Although household debt is increasing at a rapid rate, it is not considered to entail any serious risks for Swedish banks, according to the…
Norges Bank Financial Stability Report No.1, 2004
The central bank of Norway, Norges Bank, has published its twice yearly Financial Stability Report 1/2004. "The short-term outlook for financial stability is regarded as satisfactory and has improved somewhat compared with the situation six months ago,"…
Sveriges Riksbank Inflation Report, No.2, 2004
Sweden's central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank, has published its Second Inflation Report for 2004. On the whole, the recovery in the Swedish economy has progressed largely as anticipated in the previous Inflation Report. New data suggest that net exports…
Risk Management for Central Bank Foreign Reserves
The European Central Bank released a publication entitled "Risk Management for Central Bank Foreign Reserves" on 26 May. The publication gathers contributions by academics and practitioners on the role risk management plays in the management of central…
Phil Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published its Second Quarter 2004 Survey of Professional Forecasters on 24 May. The participants in the second quarter survey see steady rates for unemployment and real GDP growth for the year. Their estimates for…
The IMF and the force of history
This IMF working paper describes ten events and ten ideas that have shaped the Fund. Designed during World War II, the IMF, it says, has been influenced by the Cold War, globalisation and the collapse of communism. Ideas such as Keynesianism, monetarism,…
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, May 2004
The BOJ maintained its cautiously optimistic assessment in the report and said that overseas economies were expected to continue growing relatively fast, adding that the recovery of Japanese exports, corporate investment and production were likely to…
Bank of Canada Review, Spring 2004
The Bank of Canada has published its Review for Spring 2004. In its business outlook survey, the bank said that Canadian companies remained positive about the outlook for the next year, but a bit less so than they had three months earlier.
ECB Monthly Bulletin, May 2004
The European Central Bank published its May 2004 Monthly Bulletin on 13 May. The ECB's regular quarterly "Survey of Professional Forecasters", contained in the report said the experts had revised downwards their growth forecast for this year to 1.6…
Bank of England Inflation Report, May 2004
The Bank of England published its May 2004 Inflation Report on 12 May. The report said inflation will accelerate above its 2 percent target by early 2006 and that the economy will expand quicker than it had forecast in February.
OECD Economic Outlook, May 2004
The OECD published the May 2004 edition of its Economic Outlook on 11 May. In the report it said the OECD raised its forecasts for economic growth this year and next and said the Fed should start raising interest rates in the middle of this year to keep…
BOJ outlook on Economic Activity & Prices, April
The Bank of Japan has published its April 2004 report "Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices". Japan's economy has continued to recover at a moderate pace since the second half of 2003. In 2004, the economy is expected to continue its recovery as…
SARB Financial Stability Review, March 2004
The South African Reserve Bank has published the first edition of its Financial Stability Review for March 2004. This explains some of the approaches used in both a quantitative analysis of the various financial-stability indicators and a qualitative…
Philadelphia Fed Business Review, 2nd Quarter 2004
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has published its regular Business Review for the Second Quarter 2004. In this issue, President Santomero talks about the role of beliefs in economics and monetary policy. Other articles cover the benefits of…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, March 2004
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) March 2004 was published on 22 April. The CFNAI decreased somewhat from February to March, but remained above zero for the seventh month in a row.
The new Bank of England quarterly model
The Bank issued an article entitled "The New Bank of England Quarterly Model" on 22 April, describing a new macroeconomic model used to help prepare the Monetary Policy Committee's Quarterly economic projections.
Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book, April 2004
The Federal Reserve released its April 2004 Beige Book survey on 22 April. The U.S. economy showed "widespread" growth from mid-February through early April with only modest inflation, the survey said.
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Apr 2004
According to the firms surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, April 2004 growth in the region's manufacturing sector is continuing. Indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose from their readings last month.