Research
Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book, September 2004
The Federal Reserve has published its September 2004 Beige Book survey. The report said that while the US economy continued to grow in late July and August, growth in several regions slowed following a softening in household spending.
Phil Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has published its Third Quarter 2004 Survey of Professional Forecasters. Growth over the second half of the year looks a bit slower now than it did three months ago, according to participants in the Survey. The…
St Louis Fed's Central Banker, Fall 2004
The Fall 2004 edition of the St. Louis Fed's Central Banker magazine has been published. The latest issue includes articles "Federal Reserve To Close More Check Processing Sites" and "Federal Reserve Takes a Lead Role in Supporting Check 21" which…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, July 2004
The Chicago Fed National Activity index rose to +0.35 in July from a downward-revised reading of -0.19 the previous month. Most of the increase in July's CFNAI resulted from a big swing in the contribution from production-related indicators, from -0.25…
Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2004
The Bank of Canada has published its Review for Summer 2004. The Review contains four articles including "The Canadian Experience with Counterfeiting" which proposes a composite method of detecting counterfeits as an effective alternative to existing…
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Aug 2004
According to the firms surveyed for the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey, August 2004, activity in the manufacturing sector continues to expand, but the pace of growth is slower than last month. However, participants' optimism for general…
Basel and the cyclical behaviour of bank capital
In this Bank of Canada Working Paper "The New Basel Capital Accord and the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital" the authors conduct a counterfactual simulation of the proposed rules under the new Basel Capital Accord (Basel II).
ECB study finds inflation targets do work
A recently published working paper by the European Central Bank investigates the impact of inflation targeting, and concludes that explicit inflation targets do have a significant effect on inflation expectations and persistence.
ECB Monthly Bulletin, August 2004
The European Central Bank published its August 2004 Monthly Bulletin on 12 August. In the Bulletin the ECB said rising oil prices may hurt the economy in the 12 eurozone nations and keep inflation above the bank's limit into early next year.
Bank of Japan Monthly Report, August 2004
The Bank of Japan released the English version of its August 2004 monthly report on 12 August. In the report the bank said Japan's economy continues to recover, adding that the upturn will likely gather "stronger momentum."
Bank of England forecasts falling inflation
The Bank of England published its August 2004 Inflation Report on 11 August. According to the report UK inflation will hit its 2% target in two years, as long as interest rates rise in line with the gradual upward path the market currently expects.
RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2004
The Reserve Bank of Australia published its August 2004 Statement on Monetary Policy on 9 August. Economic developments over recent months point to continued good growth of the Australian economy. The global upswing has maintained its momentum since the…
How did the Fed respond to the stock market?
The appropriate role for equity prices in monetary policy deliberations has been hotly debated for some time. In this Discussion Paper from the Boston Fed the authors show that after controlling for the information that actually enters the FOMC's…
Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, July 2004
The Deutsche Bundesbank published the English version of its July 2004 monthly report on 5 August. June saw a slowdown in the rise in consumer prices, with the general price level falling slightly in seasonally adjusted terms.
Implementing Basel II in non-Basel member states
This fourth FSI Occasional Paper summarises the results of a Basel II Implementation Assistance Questionnaire for selected non-Basel Committee member countries. The paper presents the responses to the Questionnaire from a global perspective, highlighting…
Implementing Basel II: Practical considerations
The Basel Committee published "Implementation of Basel II: Practical Considerations" on 29 July. While the revised Framework has been designed to provide options for banks and banking systems world-wide, the Committee says it acknowledges that moving…
Banque de France, Fin Stability Review, June 2004
At the turn of the year, growth picked up in all advanced economies as well as in most emerging economies, in particular in Asia. The economic recovery, already in full swing in the United States and in Japan, gained momentum in the euro area, albeit at…
Joint Forum: Outsourcing in Financial Services
The Joint Forum released a report entitled Outsourcing in Financial Services for consultation on 2 August. The report examines the growth in outsourcing in the financial sector and the trends that have accompanied this growth.
Federal Reserve Board - Beige Book, July 2004
The Federal Reserve released its July 2004 Beige Book survey on 28 July. The report said the US economic expansion is showing some signs of moderating as consumer spending brakes.
BoJ: Technology shocks and role of monetary policy
This Bank of Japan Discussion Paper develops a quantitative, general-equilibrium business cycle model with imperfect common knowledge regarding technology shocks. The model predicts that a positive technology shock leads to a persistent decline in…
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, June 2004
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was 0.00 in June, a marked decrease from the May reading of +0.75. The production- and employment-related categories of indicators made negative contributions to the overall index in June, but these were offset by…
Price stability and Japanese monetary policy
Many observers have concluded that central banks are powerless to end deflation when short-term interest rates are near zero. This Bank of Japan Discussion Paper by Robert Hetzel, Vice President of the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of…
Comments on Price stability & Japanese mon policy
This Bank of Japan Discussion Paper summarises the authors' main points of agreement and disagreement with respect to the proposal written by Dr Hetzel. The authors agree with Dr Hetzel's proposal on four points but disagree with the proposal on three…
The birth of modern monetary policy
For many years, the Fed has used influence on short-term interest rates to contain inflationary pressure in the US economy and promote growth and employment. The genesis of this approach and its theoretical foundation both lie in the work of Knut…