Research
RBA paper investigates post-crisis leap in currency demand
Despite government deposit guarantee, demand for Australian banknotes increased by 12% following Lehman Brothers collapse
French paper stands up for early-warning signals
Research finds the often-condemned early-warning signals can contribute practically to policy-making, when taken seriously
Inflation uncertainty a ‘substantial’ threat to economic growth, says Polish paper
Research finds high inflation uncertainty can restrain GDP growth; warns the euro area will suffer if expectations are not managed
IMF paper says central banks are hoarding good collateral
Study finds pools of good collateral are evaporating as a result of unorthodox central bank policies; regulation is amplifying the trend
Bundesbank paper quantifies ‘considerable’ risk spillovers
Researchers design new methodology for measuring systemic risk and contagion effects, finding spillovers are significant but vary from region to region
BoE paper finds impatience increases austerity costs
Discussion paper finds close link between a country’s time preference and its fiscal multiplier, implying that countries wanting a slower fiscal adjustment face higher costs to austerity
Luxembourg paper says banks’ profitability will not suffer at hands of Basel III
Study says new liquidity coverage and capital-to-asset ratios will have little impact on banks’ return on assets
Banking crises scar labour productivity, finds BoE paper
Research says short-term growth of productivity and long-run levels are damaged by financial and banking crises
Dutch paper attempts to fill gaps in European unsecured lending data
Working paper develops algorithm to extract information on unsecured money-market loans from Target2 data, then uses the new data to identify trends in lending
ECB working paper highlights success of LTROs
Researcher finds three-year long-term refinancing operations significantly boosted European growth prospects and eased lending conditions
IMF research finds inflation targeting can dampen risk premiums
Working paper suggests inflation targeting reduces a country’s risk premium, although this effect is stronger for emerging markets and where inflation targeting is successful in stabilising prices
Bank of Finland researchers examine role of liquidity creation in bank failures
Experience of Russia from 2000–07 suggests early identification of excessive liquidity creators can 'mitigate systemic distress'
Macro-prudential policy can prevent euro area imbalances, says Polish paper
National Bank of Poland study finds macro-prudential instruments can prevent periphery and core imbalances emerging in the euro area, but only if applied regionally
ECB working paper posits improved volatility measure
Paper proposes new measure of volatility that provides information on whole market rather than single maturities; authors say results are simpler and more robust than existing models
IMF paper considers macroprudential needs of resource-rich countries
Study considers Mongolia’s commodity boom, finding that risks arise from loose fiscal policy, increasing credit availability and a high risk appetite
Belgian paper finds Fed policy influenced by Taylor rule
Working paper presents evidence that Federal Reserve policy-makers are influenced by the Taylor rule when making monetary policy decisions
BoJ paper challenges FSB governance style
Discussion paper asks whether ‘new governance’ model used by Financial Stability Board is effective, and suggests possible avenues for reform
Finnish paper finds sterilisation bonds can benefit Asia
Bank of Finland discussion paper examines rising use of sterilisation bonds by six central banks in Asia and finds ‘encouraging’ evidence of their effectiveness
NY Fed research plays down QE impact on emerging markets
Staff report says large-scale asset purchases have a relatively small impact on capital flows to emerging economies in the aggregate, but finds substantial variation between countries
Bundesbank deputy stresses need for SSM improvements
Sabine Lautenschläger says foundation of Europe’s single supervisory mechanism needs work; legal and governance structures unfinished at present
Monetary policy committee chairmen compared in Norwegian paper
Study finds Norges Bank and Sveriges Riksbank chairmen similar in style, despite different committee models
IMF paper compares sub-Saharan bond markets
Research finds a ‘steadily growing’ corporate bond market would benefit from further financial development in African countries
Norges Bank memo investigates structure of monetary policy committees
Staff memo distinguishes between collegiate and individualistic committees, and considers the benefits and drawbacks of each
IMF research examines ‘borrower effects’ during crisis
Working paper constructs index to assess the contribution of risky borrower portfolios in tightened overall credit conditions during a financial crisis