Cleveland paper trumpets value of median CPI in forecasting

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Using "trimmed" inflation statistics improves the accuracy of forecasts for headline and core inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate, according to a working paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland yesterday.

The paper – It's Not Just for Inflation: The Usefulness of the Median CPI in BVAR Forecasting, by Brent Meyer and Saeed Zaman – introduces median CPI into a range of multivariate models used in policy analysis at the Fed.

The authors say the improvements in

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