Research
Dutch paper says foreign banks can help or harm developing markets
Working paper finds foreign-owned banks in developing countries can provide cheaper and higher quality financial services, but may also transmit shocks across borders
Taylor challenges efficacy of central bank independence
Without a rules-based framework central banks tend to stretch the bounds of their independence, and the results tend to be poor, John Taylor says
ECB paper tweaks the evaluation of early warning systems
Research proposes changes in the way the costs and benefits of early warning systems are calculated
Fed research paper finds uncertainty more damaging at the zero lower bound
New paper finds the zero lower bound has exacerbated the effect of uncertainty in the ‘Great Recession'
IMF research lends support to exchange rate liberalisation
Working paper concludes exchange rate liberalisation in sub-Saharan Africa ended a prolonged crisis and prompted a ‘strong and ongoing’ economic expansion
Canadian study links financial development and income volatility
Working paper finds financial development can dampen the impact of technological shocks on the economy
New paper finds Colombia could be in the midst of a housing bubble
'New-fangled method' of detecting bubbles finds Colombian housing could be in a bubble right now, though findings may not be robust
RBA paper investigates post-crisis leap in currency demand
Despite government deposit guarantee, demand for Australian banknotes increased by 12% following Lehman Brothers collapse
French paper stands up for early-warning signals
Research finds the often-condemned early-warning signals can contribute practically to policy-making, when taken seriously
Inflation uncertainty a ‘substantial’ threat to economic growth, says Polish paper
Research finds high inflation uncertainty can restrain GDP growth; warns the euro area will suffer if expectations are not managed
IMF paper says central banks are hoarding good collateral
Study finds pools of good collateral are evaporating as a result of unorthodox central bank policies; regulation is amplifying the trend
Bundesbank paper quantifies ‘considerable’ risk spillovers
Researchers design new methodology for measuring systemic risk and contagion effects, finding spillovers are significant but vary from region to region
BoE paper finds impatience increases austerity costs
Discussion paper finds close link between a country’s time preference and its fiscal multiplier, implying that countries wanting a slower fiscal adjustment face higher costs to austerity
Luxembourg paper says banks’ profitability will not suffer at hands of Basel III
Study says new liquidity coverage and capital-to-asset ratios will have little impact on banks’ return on assets
Banking crises scar labour productivity, finds BoE paper
Research says short-term growth of productivity and long-run levels are damaged by financial and banking crises
Dutch paper attempts to fill gaps in European unsecured lending data
Working paper develops algorithm to extract information on unsecured money-market loans from Target2 data, then uses the new data to identify trends in lending
ECB working paper highlights success of LTROs
Researcher finds three-year long-term refinancing operations significantly boosted European growth prospects and eased lending conditions
IMF research finds inflation targeting can dampen risk premiums
Working paper suggests inflation targeting reduces a country’s risk premium, although this effect is stronger for emerging markets and where inflation targeting is successful in stabilising prices
Bank of Finland researchers examine role of liquidity creation in bank failures
Experience of Russia from 2000–07 suggests early identification of excessive liquidity creators can 'mitigate systemic distress'
Macro-prudential policy can prevent euro area imbalances, says Polish paper
National Bank of Poland study finds macro-prudential instruments can prevent periphery and core imbalances emerging in the euro area, but only if applied regionally
ECB working paper posits improved volatility measure
Paper proposes new measure of volatility that provides information on whole market rather than single maturities; authors say results are simpler and more robust than existing models
IMF paper considers macroprudential needs of resource-rich countries
Study considers Mongolia’s commodity boom, finding that risks arise from loose fiscal policy, increasing credit availability and a high risk appetite
Belgian paper finds Fed policy influenced by Taylor rule
Working paper presents evidence that Federal Reserve policy-makers are influenced by the Taylor rule when making monetary policy decisions
BoJ paper challenges FSB governance style
Discussion paper asks whether ‘new governance’ model used by Financial Stability Board is effective, and suggests possible avenues for reform