Research
IMF paper studies interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries
Economic size, inflation, the quality of bank balance sheets and banking sector concentration influence interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries, finds working paper
RBA paper finds high social cost to counterfeiting
Researchers try to put a figure on how much counterfeit banknotes cost the economy; Australian economy suffers from lower counterfeiting than elsewhere
BIS paper analyses carry trades in Latin America
BIS working paper analyses currency carry trades in Latin America, the attractiveness and visibility of which have suffered in part due to regulatory changes
San Fran Fed research analyses link between inflation targeting and growth
In an economic letter, two researchers find developing economies tend not to experience the same short-term bump in growth rates as advanced economies after adopting a target
Impact of Fed’s QE often larger in EMs than US, research finds
IMF working paper examines cross-border effects of unconventional monetary policy in the United States using a global vector error-correction model
Chilean paper analyses ‘labour wedge’ cycles
The gap between the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) and the marginal productivity of labour (MPL) increases during recessions and is counter-cyclical in Chile, finds research
IMF paper analyses Islamic banking impact on economic growth
Islamic banking is ‘more flexible against shocks and more inclusive with regards to growth’, finds an IMF working paper
Centralising supervision may trigger more integration, ECB paper finds
Working paper suggests centralising supervision could create the need for even more centralisation; calls for ‘perimeter of banks’ supervised by central authority to be flexible
IMF paper lays out new capital controls dataset
IMF working paper presents new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of 10 categories of assets for 100 countries between 1995 and 2013
RBA paper finds only weak support for sticky information Phillips curve
Paper provides ‘first estimates’ of a sticky information Phillips curve for Australia, finding the curve fits poorly with the inflation-targeting era but better in earlier years
Bank of Mexico paper warns of EM bond runs
Paper stresses vulnerability in face of Fed lift-off, even with low levels of leverage, noting mechanisms essentially unrelated to degree of leverage can determine financial stability
‘Unbanked’ numbers fall 20%, World Bank study finds
First update to the Global Findex database finds 700 million adults worldwide became new account holders since 2011, but two billion remain without access to basic financial services
Portuguese paper analyses crisis impact on union agreements
Bank of Portugal working paper evaluates changes in union agreements since the crisis, finding they have reduced due to ‘downward nominal wage rigidity in deflationary times’
Spanish paper finds LTROs had ‘moderate’ effect
Working paper examines the impact of two ‘very long-term refinancing operations’ conducted in 2011 and 2012, finding evidence of a bank lending channel
Dallas Fed studies debt impact on exchange rate fluctuations
Countries that are most vulnerable to a sudden shift in capital inflows and a sudden fall in the capital account have ‘a large stock of net non-foreign direct investment external liabilities’
Dutch paper finds public campaigns can boost debit card use
Working paper examines a campaign run in the Netherlands in 2007, finding it led to debit card use increasing by 2%; effects most prominent at early stage of campaign
Spanish paper analyses financial innovation in sovereign debt
Working paper published by the Bank of Spain studies how financial innovation in sovereign debt markets can increase a country’s level of private investment and welfare
Colombian paper studies policy impact on ‘fragile’ banks
Combination of macro-prudential tools such as pro-cyclical capital requirements and monetary policy is “well suited” to containing the effects of a downturn, study finds
Finnish paper explains why bank runs are sometimes partial
Discussion paper published by the Bank of Finland explains why bank runs in a situation where deposits are back with a government guarantee sometimes remain partial
IMF paper proposes refinements to potential output estimation
Researchers use an adapted ‘multivariate filter’ that aims to improve upon other methods of estimating potential output, although they admit the result is probably only the ‘least worst’ option
Fed research: Three channels of shadow banking fragility
Working paper models the increased fragility created by shadow banks, even though they provide higher levels of credit to the economy
ECB research assesses fiscal impact of bailouts
ECB paper analyses the impact on a government’s fiscal position of assistance measures; finds majority of the financial needs (4.9% of 5.1% of GDP) were recorded is first three crisis years
Chilean paper analyses unemployment’s impact on wages
The impact of unemployment spells on wages is high, but the volatility ‘increases much more during recessions’, research finds
Bank of Finland paper tests price-level based forward guidance
Seppo Honkapohja and Kaushik Mitra use ‘adaptive learning’ approach to show price-level targeting can outperform inflation targeting under some circumstances