Research
Belgian paper examines impact of unit labour costs on exports
Working paper results imply a 10% increase in unit labour costs leads to drop in exports of between 2% and 4%, based on data from 1999 to 2010
Chilean paper analyses recent trends in long-term interest rates
Whether interest rate normalisation will be a smooth process ‘remains to be seen’ as recent developments in fixed-income markets ‘warns of enhanced risks’, research finds
No end in sight for cash payments, Canadian research finds
Despite its costs, cash remains a popular option among Canadians, with younger consumers and merchants showing the highest demand for cash
Polish paper examines impact of different loan types on policy efficacy
Researchers from Polish and Norwegian central banks consider how the different characteristics of residential mortgage markets influence the workings of monetary and macro-prudential policy
Pent-up wage cuts an 'important force' during recovery, San Francisco Fed researchers find
Many firms were unable to reduce wages during the recession, and the 'pent-up' reductions have influenced the recovery, argue authors
Bank of Korea paper examines global liquidity drivers
Researchers at central bank explore transmission of global liquidity shocks from advanced to emerging market economies; warns there is no ‘silver bullet’ response
Bundesbank paper finds bank levy is biting
Big banks have adjusted their behaviour in response to a tax on their liabilities, but less revenue has been raised than expected, Bundesbank researchers find
Impact of ECB unconventional policies depends on bank capitalisation, finds Belgian paper
ECB crisis measures have greater impact on GDP growth in countries where banks are well capitalised, researchers find
BIS paper finds US spillovers impact through long-term rates
Researchers show US monetary policy spills over into Asian economies mainly through long-term interest rates and suggest policy options
BoE research identifies strong impact from long-term unemployment on inflation
Working paper finds evidence that models incorporating linear Phillips curves are underestimating the effect of long-term unemployment on wage inflation
BIS paper finds transmission of low policy rates to lending rates has weakened
There has been a ‘strong increase’ in the gap between the lending rate and the policy rate since the global financial crisis, a BIS working paper suggests
German investments would generate ‘beneficial' regional spillovers, finds IMF paper
The expansionary effect of higher public investment in Germany ‘substantially strengthened' when supported by an accommodative monetary policy stance, according to working paper
Banque de France paper says asset purchases may struggle to anchor rates
Working paper suggests asset purchases could be a way to anchor interbank rates, but the policy faces a number of difficulties; absorbing excess liquidity another option
Optimal policy changes as financial inclusion rises, BIS paper finds
Working paper presents evidence that both output volatility and inflation volatility fall as financial inclusion rises, but monetary policy will optimally lean more towards controlling prices
Research takes Bayesian approach to find early-warning indicators
Excessive credit growth and high returns of bank stocks are the ‘best’ early-warning indicators, researchers from Austrian and German central banks find
Chilean study identifies ‘delicate’ relationship between prudential policy and bailouts
Liquidity requirements and prudential taxes are examples of prudential policies that may backfire, since they can increase the risk taken by banks in expectation of a bailout, research finds
Credible fiscal plans reduce pressure on sovereign bond market, study finds
A credible macro-fiscal framework ‘can lead to stable expectations’ around a country’s sovereign bond market, reducing its expected risk premium, ECB paper finds
External imbalances predict exchange rate returns, finds SNB paper
Deviations from trends in Swiss net foreign assets and net exports indicated how nominal exchange rate will move in the future, according to a Swiss National Bank working paper
IMF paper suggests Peruvian forex interventions are asymmetric
The Central Bank of Peru has tended to react differently in the face of appreciation and depreciation pressures, research finds
Impact of flight to liquidity on bonds important for policy-makers, study finds
The effects of flight to liquidity episodes on bond markets ‘are important for policy-makers’, since they are associated with ‘lower macroeconomic confidence’, research finds
IMF paper: Costs of macro-pru policies still unclear
Policy-makers should ‘move carefully' in adopting macro-prudential tools as ‘knowledge is still limited', working paper argues
IMF praises Central Bank of Kuwait’s ‘proactive’ approach
Central bank is ‘proactive’ in its liquidity management and macro-prudential supervision, IMF report says; publishing more timely information on oil sector would be ‘useful’
Irish research finds macro-pru tools have ‘greater impact’ on first-time buyers
Economic letter published by Central Bank of Ireland explores impact of loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios on different groups within residential property market
Healthy domestic variables can smooth rating downgrades, paper finds
Good domestic variables can help a country recover from a sovereign rating downgrade, but these fundamentals have little capacity to accelerate on an ‘upgrade cycle’, research finds