Research
BIS paper finds stabilisation policy can impact long-run growth
Use of short-run interest rates has implications for long-run growth due to their effect on credit and liquidity supply, BIS working paper finds
Minneapolis Fed research criticises China's 'quid pro quo' policy
Staff report finds ‘significant impact’ on innovation and welfare from China’s continued policy of exchanging market access for technology – good for China, but not for advanced economies
Banque de France paper tackles ‘elasticity of poverty’
Researchers examine the extent to which growth in different sectors translates into a reduction in poverty for countries in Africa; commodity-driven economies particularly bad for the poor
BoE paper identifies issues in measuring ‘too big to fail’
Research assesses different approaches to measuring the scale of the ‘too big to fail’ problem, and finds none is without issues, but different approaches still identify effects
IMF paper tackles puzzle of asset bubbles in efficient markets
Working paper suggests business risk for asset managers creates institutional herding and ‘rational bubble-riding’, with implications for the design of macro-prudential policies
BIS paper asks why bank and central bank rates diverged post-crisis
Authors argue direct comparison of commercial and central bank interest rates is misleading; the relationship between the two has remained stable but funding costs have risen
Dutch paper finds global banking system has adopted ‘a more regional focus’
Researchers say global banking has not become more fragmented, but has undergone some ‘important transformations’ since the crisis
Ageing population may boost inflation, BIS paper finds
Working paper challenges received wisdom that an ageing population causes disinflation, with implications for the correct calibration of monetary policy
ECB publishes new economic bulletin
The first in the new series, introduced to ‘mirror’ new governing council meeting cycle, features an assessment of the Chinese economic outlook
Czech paper examines link between financial variables and macroeconomy
Financial variables ‘particularly relevant’ in explaining Czech macroeconomic developments in the lead-up to and during downturns, researchers find
Curbs on rehypothecation may boost welfare, St Louis Fed paper finds
Researchers find rehypothecation boosts welfare, particularly as inflation rises, but it generally goes too far, implying there are benefits to regulatory intervention
FOMC members too bullish on growth, researchers at San Francisco Fed say
‘Persistent overoptimism' about future growth since financial crisis may be due to overestimation of monetary policy efficacy following a balance-sheet recession, authors find
Researchers find evidence of ‘European unemployment cycle’
Working paper published by The Netherlands Bank separates the different origins of unemployment in Europe, finding the continent- and country-level factors most influential
Chilean deputy analyses financial education
Chile made good progress in financial inclusion but ‘belatedly noticed that it should be accompanied by adequate financial education’, Enrique Marshall finds in research
IMF paper examines sensitivity of house prices to global liquidity shocks
Researchers find prices in emerging markets respond ‘much more’ to a shock in the international supply of credit than in advanced economies
BCBS paper reviews how accounting may fuel crises
Basel Committee paper surveys research into how accounting rules may have contributed to financial crisis, with implications for the design of disclosure rules
Energy producers should lower interest rates following drop in oil prices, suggests Norges Bank paper
Given spillovers to rest of economy, optimal policy calls for a reduction in interest rates, finds study; central banks face ‘trade-off' between stabilising inflation and closing output gap
IMF paper rejects one-size-fits-all approach to financial inclusion
Working paper published by the IMF argues country-specific characteristics ‘play a central role’ in determining impacts of different policies aimed at improving financial inclusion
BIS paper argues debt overhang is ‘leading cause’ of sluggish growth
Paper by Stephanie Lo and Ken Rogoff finds debt overhang is the main factor behind countries struggling to recover from crisis, but high leverage may obscure other factors at play
Belgian research examines policy response to oil price shocks
To curb the wealth-shifting effect of oil price shocks ‘optimal policy calls for a large but short-lived increase in the real interest rate’
Research finds IMF lending helps limit future crises
Working paper published by IMF examines impact of lending programmes on developing countries between 1970 and 2010, finding they reduce likelihood of future banking crises
Colombian paper examines synchronisation of economic cycles in Latin America
Central Bank of Colombia working paper finds there is ‘not a high’ level of synchronisation between a sample of seven Latin American countries
Obstfeld warns emerging markets face dual trilemmas
BIS working paper dissects emerging markets’ ability to resist monetary policy spill-overs, finding the demands of monetary and financial trilemmas make self-defence difficult or impossible
Productivity performance sparks uptick in US entrepreneurship, finds Boston Fed paper
‘Modest improvement' in 2012 and 2013 follows a 'significant decline' in firm creation after the financial crisis to the lowest level since 1977