Macroeconomics
Exchange rate shocks gaining importance for eurozone inflation – research
Core inflation less influenced by exogenous factors, Bank of Spain research paper says
Strong dollar can be bad for trade – BIS paper
Textbook theory does not always hold due to the effect of global value chains, authors say
BoE’s Vlieghe: central banks must focus on ‘debt, demographics and distribution’
Risk-based approach could be helpful in thinking about the impact on rates, policy-maker says
IMF warns of ‘synchronised slowdown’ as it cuts forecasts
Fund revises down growth prospects for 2019–20 and calls for action on financial vulnerabilities
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
There are better ways to solve China trade dispute – Atlanta Fed economist
It is “underappreciated” that the Chinese currency is devalued, Tao Zha says
Fed can now keep rates on hold, senior official says
Recent cuts have provided greater assurance Fed will hit inflation target, Charles Evans says
Fed researchers model impact of recent trade uncertainty
Trade uncertainty could account for a 1–2% decline in US investment, researchers say
BoE paper explores collateral’s impact on labour market
Collateral value affects hiring decisions by small businesses, authors find
Inflation models must pay more attention to globalisation – Brookings paper
Global factors more important for some inflation measures since 2008 financial crisis, researcher finds
RBI’s Das weighs up external economic threats
India’s external sector is resilient, but capital flows have been volatile and trade weak, governor says
Bank of Israel proposes measures to stabilise social security system
Benefit payments set to rise faster than GDP in the coming decades, warns central bank
Central banks are ‘riders on the storm’, say Jordà and Taylor
Central banks control less than half the overall variation in interest rates, authors find
‘Non-salient fees’ matter for mortgage pricing – BoE paper
Many borrowers appear to be less sensitive to fees than to interest rates, and firms exploit this
IMF research flags urgent need for climate policy framework
Co-ordination of fiscal, financial and monetary instruments will be needed, say authors
BIS authors offer advice on escaping low inflation trap
Luiz Pereira da Silva and co-authors say “snapback” unlikely, given changing labour markets
BoE forced to reveal latest analysis of no-deal Brexit
Carney writes that preparations have helped reduce likely impact of “worst-case” no-deal
Israel’s Yaron calls for targeted spending as elections draw near
Governor says fiscal policy must seek to boost living standards while maintaining discipline
Brexit may have cost the UK 5% of productivity – BoE paper
Study draws on newly developed survey of decision-makers at UK firms
Inflation edges higher as Fed prepares for next meeting
Consumer spending boosts economy, but recent sentiment data suggests it could be about change
BoE policy-makers face fallout from political chaos
November policy decision could be unveiled on an election day; new analysis by MPC members suggests worst economic impact yet to come
Economists publish ‘crash course’ on euro crisis
Brunnermeier and Reis say framework is designed to help students grasp the macro-financial roots of recent crises
Summers and Stansbury warn of ‘black hole’ as central bankers debate solutions
Economists say they hope for revolutionary thinking at Jackson Hole conference – “but we are not holding our breath”
Anticipation of fiscal stimulus has ‘sizeable’ impact on growth – paper
Passing the 2018 US Bipartisan Budget Act increased GDP by 1%, researchers find