Macroeconomics
US health system likely to be overwhelmed – Minneapolis Fed paper
Policy-makers must support massive healthcare investment and severe social distancing – researcher
Fiscal effects may take several weeks to pass through – research
Economist examines lag time for Obama’s Great Recession-era fiscal package
Book notes: The art of economic catch-up, by Keun Lee
Rather than merely catch-up, the book offers countries advice in making a sea change in their economic statuses
G7 leaders avoid committing to co-ordinated virus response
Central bankers and finance ministers “stand ready”; Carney says BoE has launched contingency measures
Too early to speculate on coronavirus impact – Fed vice-chair
Experts urge Americans to brace for “inevitable” spread of the virus in the US
US exporters hit by Trump’s import tariffs – Fed paper
Firms making 80% of US exports affected by tariffs on input goods, researchers find
US is still an attractive FDI destination – Fed paper
FDI slowdown in 2017–18 due to corporate restructuring and reversing debt flows, researcher argues
‘Intangibles’ may be adding to long-run rate decline – BoE’s Haskel
Economist says “tyranny of collateral” could be a problem for modern economies
De Guindos stresses uncertainty from coronavirus outbreak
Powell and Carney said Fed and BoE are closely monitoring the virus’s impact on the economy
Remittances can cause volatility if concentrated – IMF paper
Flows of remittances are broadly stabilising for the receiving country, but not if they are too concentrated, paper finds
IMF cuts forecast again, but says slowdown may be ending
Fresh downward revision to growth outlook set against “tentative stabilisation”, says Gita Gopinath
CAR renews IMF support amid ‘volatile’ security situation
New three-year deal designed to shore up peace agreement
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
Inflation expectations risk continuing downward trend – John Williams
New York Fed president urges policy-makers to hold themselves accountable for below-target inflation
Trump’s tax cuts boosted growth and jobs – Dallas Fed paper
Researcher uses state-level data on tax cuts to estimate national impact
Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research
Study casts doubt on major theories, including secular stagnation; author warns rates could “soon enter permanently negative territory”
Macroeconomics is not broken
The discipline has moved beyond the neoclassical synthesis. Critics should too
Global climate cycles create varied growth challenges – paper
Changing climate has different impact on growth depending on country’s normal climate, researchers find
US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns
Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find
US-China trade deal could damage some countries’ trade flows – IMF paper
Eurozone could face loss of trade from between $61 billion to $84 billion, researchers find
SBP looks back on tough year for Pakistan
Lack of fiscal consolidation hampered central bank’s crisis response, annual report says
BoE’s Tenreyro comes to the defence of flexible exchange rates
Policy-maker challenges conventional wisdom in several areas of economics
St Louis Fed researchers deconstruct US inflation
Slower growth in energy, healthcare and housing prices contributed to lower inflation in recent expansion, researchers find
Bank of Spain paper looks at supply chains’ impact on investment
Greater value chain integration has strong impact on foreign and domestic investment, paper finds