Macroeconomics
Inflation target uncertainty magnifies price shocks’ impact- BoI paper
Researchers investigate effects of central banks failing to pefectly follow targets
Shale oil boom has not shifted global supply- ECB paper
Global oil supply appears to be “rather vertical” at all times, researchers find
BoE under pressure with July inflation release
Bank of England must deal with recent fall in GDP and Brexit uncertainty
Higher inflation expectations can cut consumption – research
Authors conduct randomised control trial to test “forward guidance puzzle”
Climate change will hit US growth hard – Dallas Fed study
US growth could fare worse than China’s with projected temperature rises, researchers find
BoE faces bleak outlook as new prime minister appointed
Think-tank says UK may already be in recession, as threat of “no-deal” Brexit looms
Ethiopia needs to rebalance after investment boom – IMF Africa chief
Country has achieved impressive development but vulnerabilities have grown, says Abebe Aemro Selassie
BoE paper questions technological explanations for falling ‘labour share’
Measurement problems may account for less income seeming to flow to workers, authors say
BIS paper looks at low returns on safe assets
Changing risk perceptions explain growing wedge between safe and risky assets, authors say
‘Heterogeneous beliefs’ can improve models of inflation – BoE paper
Authors break down inflation expectations in search of additional forward-looking information
Lagarde reiterates call for greater international co-ordination
“We need a trading system fit for today’s world,” IMF chief says after G20 summit
Canada facing broad-based inflationary pressures, data suggests
Some analysts say immediate rate hikes unlikely despite price rises
Akerlof warns economics is biased against methods seen as ‘soft’
Nobel prize-winner says bias leads to “sins of omission” in economic research
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Putting modern monetary theory to the test
Sayuri Shirai asks whether MMT might hold the solution to Japan’s stagnation
Finnish researchers propose new crisis indicator
Bank of Finland paper compares short term credit-to-GDP ratio to "Basel gap"
Barbados central bank hopeful for international business rebound
Sector suffered after sanctions imposed due to country’s low tax rates
‘Uncertainty shocks’ can do long-term harm – BoE paper
Authors outline a general equilibrium model to show uncertainty can have long-run effects
US labour force participation driven by fewer outflows – San Fran Fed researcher
Hot economy could be making workers less likely to leave labour force, Regis Barnichon says
BoE’s Ramsden highlights unusual patterns of investment and hiring
Weak investment in capital could exacerbate UK’s productivity woes, deputy says
BoE’s Broadbent: constant Brexit delays are hurting investment
Deputy governor blames “repeated series of cliff edges” for poor UK investment
Cambodian central bank voices concerns over possible Chinese spillovers
Central bank fears a sharp drop in property market could trigger financial system risks
RBNZ paper hunts cause of flattening Phillips curve
Paper explores trend of declining relationship between inflation and economic activity
Bank of Italy paper looks at impact of long-term rates
Long-term rates have significant impact on Italian banks’ risk appetite, researchers find