Macroeconomics
Muted consumer sentiment may not presage low US growth – study
Kansas City Fed research says people’s pessimism does not automatically mean they will spend less
Tariffs already raising US inflation – Fed study
Researchers say trade policies were starting to affect consumer prices in March
The cost of ‘US liberation’
Stephen Millard outlines NIESR’s latest analysis of the Trump tariffs, as risks tilt to the downside
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
‘Liberation day’ likely to cause US recession – NBER study
Paper sets out conditions for tariff-driven downturn and says US is likely to meet them
‘Declaring war on the world economy’: economists react to Trump tariffs
Early estimates point to stagflation in US, as tariffs hit highest level since early 20th century
Vector-based language model can improve forecasts – BIS paper
“Word embeddings” can be used to make better inflation predictions, authors find
Agent-based models come of age
Central banks are increasingly modelling the economy as a complex system
Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate takes a nosedive
Bank projects more severe contraction in Q1, while analysts point to possible recession
Bigger housing booms create deeper downturns – IMF paper
Rapid home price rises can trigger big economic busts and misallocations of resources, authors find
Targeted financing would not solve housing crisis – research
National Bank of Denmark argues against allowing premature pension withdrawals for housing
People willing to pay more to curb business cycle – study
Survey data challenges assertion that consumers would only make minimal sacrifices
‘Dark’ oil shipping impacts inflation – paper
Research finds nearly 43% of seaborne crude is shipped undercover to evade sanctions
UK economy vulnerable to Trump tariffs – BoE’s Greene
MPC member says US has outsized financial impact as biggest single-country trading partner
Immigration reduces inflation in US – IMF paper
But immigrants put upward pressure on house prices, study finds
Disability poses hidden costs in US – Fed research
Authors also explore how gender gap and living alone affect financial wellbeing
NBER paper explores sources of ‘geoeconomic power’
Authors write of “urgent need” to understand “new era of geoeconomic rivalry”
The UK is not suffering another Truss shock
The increase in gilt yields is a long way from the turmoil of 2022, writes Jagjit Chadha. But it does highlight flaws in the use of fiscal rules
Forbearance does not always lead to ‘zombification’ – BoE paper
Well-designed policies can support firms through temporary periods of stress, researchers find
Stiglitz offers alternatives to standard theories of economic fluctuations
Nobel prize winner argues that endogenously driven variations are key to understanding economies
BIS highlights market ‘uneasiness’ over bond issuance
Claudio Borio says fiscal outlook worldwide is “acutely worrying”
Phillips curve is convex in short term – NBER paper
Data on US and UK shows firms respond more to positive than negative demand shocks
Italian lenders do not under-report default risks – central bank
Commercial lenders’ internal rating-based systems “less conservative” than central bank’s
OECD highlights ‘resilient’ economies beset by risks
Geopolitics, high public debt and possible repricing in private credit markets threaten outlook