Macroeconomics
Central bankers warn of US election risks
Danger of tariffs and supply chain disruptions, Central Banking Summer Meetings hear
Global natural rates could be rising, SNB governor says
Jordan says Swiss central bank’s approach allows it to deal with uncertainty over r*
Acemoglu questions productivity benefits of AI
MIT economist finds weak productivity gains from AI and says benefits may be undermined by costs
Twenty years on, Visegrád states are converging to rest of the EU
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have undergone economic transformation, CNB finds
Can US policy choices explain economic divergence?
NIESR’s Ahmet Kaya finds US fiscal stimulus may have masked standard economic relationships, but economic gravity may soon reassert itself
Hungarian minister calls central bank ‘unco-operative’
MNB’s critique of government strategy draws official’s rebuke
Profit inflation and monetary policy: weighing the evidence
Biagio Bossone says profit inflation needs monetary ‘fuel’ to rise – but fiscal policy is the best fix, should governments have the ‘guts’
US news has a large impact on global bond yields – research
Bank of Canada research finds US news affects expectations in other countries
Generative AI’s impact on inflation unclear – BIS study
Inflation could worsen if people anticipate jump in productivity, authors say
Low growth threatens to reverse living standards – IMF
AI will drive growth but also increase inequalities, fund says
Long-term inflationary pressure set to rise, research finds
Changed environment makes central banks’ task harder, Kenneth Rogoff and other researchers say
Dallas Fed analysis explains puzzle of strong US economy
Authors say US has enjoyed favourable supply-side conditions that others missed out on
IMF chief urges China to adopt pro-market reforms
Comprehensive reforms could add $3.5 trillion to economy over next 15 years, Georgieva says
New study finds uneven impact of changing energy costs
Energy prices more likely to affect product prices than wage increases
BIS research points to ‘slower disinflation ahead’
Breakdown of post-Covid surge finds services prices playing bigger role
Natural rate is rising in US and eurozone, BIS study finds
Research adds to debate on metric but warns it is “blurry guidepost” for monetary policy
‘Cost of money’ explains depressed US consumers – NBER research
Larry Summers and co-authors highlight “disconnect in inflation measurement”
RBI challenges IMF’s call for larger fiscal consolidation
Study argues bigger budget cuts not necessary if government focuses on development spending
Inflation memories pass from parents to children – research
Fear of hyperinflation influences behaviour across generational divides
Researchers warn US vacancies are ‘untethered’ from other data
Minneapolis Fed economists say US could face “more substantial job losses”
The risks facing the Chinese economy
China isn’t at risk of a financial meltdown, but it does face a slow puncture, writes Michael Taylor
Memory shapes inflation expectations, study finds
People who remember high inflation also trust the central bank less, authors say
Monetary policy helped curb inflation expectations – research
Higher rates could achieve a “soft landing” if the expectations channel is strong enough, authors say
Obstfeld argues central banks’ rate models are ‘conceptually flawed’
Former IMF chief economist says rates could soon return to the effective lower bound