Monetary Policy
China analysts expect moderate rate cuts in H2
PBoC mirrors politburo stance in mid-year meeting while eyeing further internationalisation of yuan
News coverage affects inflation expectations – NBER paper
Authors say bad news has bigger impact on perceptions of inflation
ECB paper finds strong policy can stop expectations de-anchoring
Communicating counterfactual scenarios can help to inform monetary policy decisions
South Africa’s central bank denies reducing inflation target
Sarb says it is targeting bottom of existing 3–6% range, after reports it had bypassed Treasury
Monetary policy alone will not solve Korea’s problems – paper
Study calls for structural changes to tackle ageing population, high debt and low growth
Attempt to make FOMC meetings public is 'frivolous' – experts
Legal action by Trump ally, if successful, would hamper discussion, says ex-Fed official
Colombia’s unexpected rate hold draws fire from president
Policy maintained at 9.25% could mean fewer or no rate cuts in upcoming meetings, analysts say
Book notes: Inflation, by Mark Blyth and Nicolò Fraccaroli
An accessible explainer about the narratives surrounding inflation – and who it benefits
Brazil holds rates amid tariff threats and Trump-Lula feud
Potential 50% levies from US reinforce “cautious stance”, BCB says
Ghana’s 300bp rate cut is largest in its history
Governor signals further easing as inflation cools to lowest level since 2021
BoJ holds policy and ups inflation expectations
Japan’s central bank says growth likely to slow then pick up again after tariffs’ effects diminish
Fed holds rates, despite pressure from White House
Experts say stance is in response to Trump’s trade policies and lament his attacks on central bank
Bank of Canada holds rates as core inflation heats up
Governor points to tariffs, but economist highlights “mystery” of core metric’s divergence from headline measure
Chile cuts rates for first time this year
Central bank says more easing to come as US tariff threats on copper complicate outlook
Singapore maintains policy after two periods of easing
MAS says Q2 growth stronger than expected but trade likely to slow in second half of 2025
ECB to apply climate risk to collateral framework
Move expected to reduce value of assets in bank’s refinancing operations
Kyrgyzstan tightens policy for first time in more than a year
Central bank raises rates by 25bp to keep inflation in check amid tariff uncertainties
‘Start late, then sprint’ may cost when tackling inflation – CEPR
Research says approach ultimately succeeded post-Covid, but hurt central banks’ credibility
Russia cuts rates by 200bp, citing moderation in inflation
Experts say central bank waited until expectations had moderated and cut may support country’s lenders
Tailored central bank messaging boosts trust – BoJ study
Citizens are more confident about inflation forecasts when delivered by someone similar to them
European Central Bank pauses rate-cutting campaign
ECB considers strengthening eurozone economy to be “crucial” in face of geopolitical challenges
Turkey cuts for first time since March’s political turmoil
CBRT reduces rates by 300bp to 43% and vows to maintain “tight” policy stance
Ukraine opts to keep rates higher for longer
Central bank holds at 15.5% and says policy must remain “rather tight” if 5% inflation target is to be met
New Zealand expects continued easing amid trade uncertainties
RBNZ chief economist says tariff uncertainty likely to slow inflation and growth