Economics
Sweden’s Riksbank has mixed forecasting performance, report finds
Riksbank “relatively good” at projecting growth and unemployment, but less so when it comes to the policy rate; this is “notable” and not “particularly satisfactory”, report notes
Government approves final stage of Thai development plan
Bank of Thailand will promote electronic payments in latest phase of financial sector master plan; all phases to be completed by 2020
Capital flow measures needed before offshore krona auction, says Guðmundsson
If the currency auction goes to plan, inward flows could strengthen and the Central Bank of Iceland needs the tools to resist them, its governor says
BoE’s Forbes outlines new thinking on current account imbalances
Breaking current account into trade and financial components allows more detailed analysis of when a large imbalance is dangerous and what shocks could cause trouble
Inflation expectations well-anchored, Richmond Fed president says
Lacker tells audience at Banque de France he believes expectations are anchored, despite drop in inflation compensation; Villeroy de Galhau notes drop in market-based measures in eurozone
Inflation and unemployment affect wage rigidity, Icelandic authors find
Research challenges New Keynesian assumption that timings of wage changes are exogenous, showing level of inflation and unemployment also matter
Research sheds light on RBNZ concerns over inflation expectations
Article authored by, among others, John McDermott argues the risk of inflation expectations losing their anchor has increased; concerns were a ‘primary motive’ for last week’s rate cut
Paper uses machine learning to nowcast GDP in Lebanon
Working paper published by IMF explores use of machine learning technique in assessing economic conditions in Lebanon, where analysis is a ‘distinct challenge’ on account of data lags
Charlie Bean calls for ‘culture changes’ at ONS in final statistics report
ONS should set up two centres to better measure economic activity, Bean says; using these centres will allow the ONS to fully ‘capture’ the digital economy
RBNZ tweaks forecasting models and cuts key rate
Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 25bp to 2.25% in attempt to prevent inflation expectations from falling further; updates models in wake of optimistic forecasts
Paper finds evidence in favour of ‘exchange-rate-anchored inflation targeting’
A working paper published by the IMF finds ‘tight management’ of the exchange rate can help support inflation targeting in ‘less developed countries’
Brainard warns of segmentation of liquidity
Recent changes in liquidity practices may heighten financial markets’ vulnerability in stressed conditions, Brainard says; downward pressures on inflation remain, she adds
RBA’s Lowe says productivity still a problem
Australia has proven resilient through an uncomfortable rebalancing phase, but the economy is still plagued by disappointing productivity growth, deputy governor says
Regulation affects pass-through to current account, BoE paper finds
Discussion paper sets out theoretical and empirical backing for idea that low rates can cause a current account deficit to grow, in the presence of liberalised financial markets
PBoC's Zhou dismisses talk of renminbi devaluation ahead of G20 meetings
Chinese governor says country is 'opposed' to competitive devaluations; argues capital outflows likely to subside given 'strong fundamentals'
BoJ’s Nakaso sees analytical challenge in gauging reforms
Policy board member says the design of standard models may be one reason why it is hard to tell whether Japan needs demand- or supply-side reform
Financial variables improve output gap estimates, BoE paper finds
Adding financial variables to estimates of the output gap can allow policy-makers to spot trouble on the horizon more easily, authors say
Research considers impact of fiscal consolidation on debt-to-GDP ratio
Working paper published by ECB finds fiscal consolidation conducted through a revenue increase, rather than a spending cut, is ‘self-defeating austerity’
Research considers why macroeconomic announcements impact asset prices
A working paper published by the ECB weighs the ‘intrinsic value’ of macroeconomic news announcements in the US, finding timing is crucial to maintaining it
Caruana marks out dangerous nexus between debt, oil and the US dollar
BIS chief points to interactions of dollar borrowing by emerging markets, US rate hikes and the oil price, as latest data suggests world may be balanced on the edge of a drop in global liquidity
BIS paper finds forecasters put too much faith in private information
‘Noisy information model’ of inflation forecasting implies forecasters put inefficient weightings on private information to differentiate themselves
Kansas Fed researchers bridge gap between forward guidance data and theory
Working paper identifies empirical effects of guidance at the zero lower bound, before finding a standard model of price rigidity largely replicates the results
BIS paper says trade finance impacts global spillovers
Working paper emphasises importance of including trade finance when modelling global shocks, finding variations in price stickiness are important
Issing says eurozone status quo is in danger
Former ECB board member says Europe’s monetary union is still plagued by problems caused by absence of political integration, which could pull the eurozone apart