Economics
Bank of Spain research traces impact of lockdown
Authors call for exhaustive test-and-trace to avoid future nationwide lockdowns
Colombian exchange rate shocks are asymmetric – central bank paper
Impact of 2014 drop in Colombian peso lends support to “dominant currency” theory, authors say
Banks are crucial investment source for French firms – BdF paper
Researchers use BdF database to examine how French companies finance their investments
Podcast: Cleveland Fed director on all things inflation and Covid-19
Robert Rich discusses money supply growth and muted inflation, plus new Fed research on the Phillips curve and alternative inflation targets
Bundesbank paper uses neural networks for rate forecasting
Artificial neural networks outperform linear and non-linear functions, author says
Ageing population helps explain inequality in US – BIS paper
Firms gain greater market power as workers grow older, authors say
Covid-19 policy-making and the need for high-speed data
High-frequency data holds the promise of speed and adaptability, but the rush to find alternative economic indicators has the potential to create problems
ECB paper sets out new dataset on trade invoicing currencies
Dataset sheds new light on the importance of “dominant currency paradigm”, authors say
Foreign financing can help exporters survive – BIS paper
Result could be important for the development of emerging economies, authors say
ECB paper looks at Bayesian nowcasting
BVAR models have several advantages over Dynamic Factor Models, researchers say
Covid-19: a watershed moment for China’s BRI?
China faces a delicate balancing act when it comes to forgiving and restructuring Belt and Road Initiative debt while preserving the soundness of its financial institutions
Improvements in US consumer expectations halt in July
Households more pessimistic as Covid-19 continues to spread, New York Fed survey reveals
Fed paper: market power can cause inequality and instability
Market power can explain a lot of recent undesirable “secular trends”, authors say; redistribution could have macro-prudential benefits
Emerging markets face L-shaped recession – paper
Researcher works back from growth forecasts to see how Covid shocks might play out
US unemployment falls to 10.2%
Miscalculation errors continue to understate headline figures, Peterson Institute research finds
New York Fed study exposes ‘disturbing’ reality for black-owned firms
Data shows black-owned firms were disadvantaged from the start of the pandemic
Share buybacks limits monetary policy- BdF paper
Use of low-cost debt for buy-backs cuts spending on employment and capital good- researchers
Okun’s law can help predict GDP revisions – SF Fed paper
Revisions to GDP estimates during recovery from pandemic could significantly affect policy
US and German economies suffer largest quarterly contraction in decades
Official figures say second quarter saw biggest US GDP decline since the Great Depression
Covid-19 hampering high-tech development in Israel – BoI research
Pandemic exposes risk of overreliance on international financing in a key economic sector
Book notes: The state of economics, the state of the world, edited by Basu, Rosenblatt and Sepúlveda
The 2016 contributions of Nobel Prize-winning economists and others remain relevant to today
IMF research highlights limits of exchange rate flexibility
New dataset sheds light on role of dominant-currency invoicing for exchange rate dynamics