Economics
Central banks judge success of research by number of publications
Inflation and exchange rate most topical issues for central banks
Use of centralised data services increases across institutions
Rise of central data teams has gone hand in hand with greater use of alternative data
Alternative data used at most central banks
Non-traditional data such as Google searches widely used to support research and forecasting
Research economists devote more working time to own projects
On average, own research works consume 25% of policy economists’ working time
Advanced economy institutions tend to produce more papers
Emerging market researchers averaged five papers a year in peer-reviewed journals
ECB paper presents new corporate default prediction method
Authors say their “distance to insolvency” measure outperforms other forecasting methods
Research agenda determined across multiple levels
Governors and deputy governors give final sign-off on most research publications
Das outlines RBI’s post-Covid research reforms
Central bank has adopted “full information” system to capture economic dynamics
Majority of banks blend research and policy functions
Only one in five jurisdictions restructured economics unit in the past 12 months
Growth and inflation are top forecast indicators
More emerging markets forecast growth and inflation compared with the past year
Argentine central bank debt poses major risks, analyst says
Moody’s analyst says central bank faces macroeconomic crisis as short-term debt rises
Climate change may have serious effects on natural rate – ECB paper
Monetary policy may need more flexibility to deal with climate and green transition, researchers say
Eurozone inflation reaches new record of 10.7%
Energy is main driver, but inflation is rising in all sectors, Eurostat figures show
ERM’s 1992 crisis offers lessons for today, academics say
Barry Eichengreen, Maurice Obstfeld and Richard Portes discussed “accident waiting to happen”
ECB paper looks at impact of financial channel
Large holdings of foreign-denominated liabilities increases importance of FX moves, paper says
Christopher Sims on modelling the inflation surge
Unprecedented series of shocks creates major challenges for central bank forecasters, the Nobel Prize-winning economist tells Daniel Hinge
Belarus’s governor predicts inflation will fall
Government imposed price controls after sanctions helped push inflation into double digits
ADB gives crisis-hit Pakistan $1.5 billion loan
Asian Development Bank extends aid as extensive floods add to major economic problems
Nominal interest rates strongly affect savings – ECB paper
Simple models based on real rates do not accord with eurozone data, researchers find
Armenian governor argues for ‘paradigm shift’ in forecasting
Base case should be abandoned in favour of multiple scenarios, says Martin Galstyan
US CPI inflation remains high
Headline reading falls slightly, while core inflation continues to rise
IMF opens long-term lending initiative
Resilience and Sustainability Trust will offer 20-year packages to mitigate long-term problems
Georgieva says Argentina needs permanent fix to FX problems
IMF releases latest $3.8bn financing tranche, as market inflation forecasts reach 100%
IMF publishes sober outlook for 2023
“Worst is yet to come”, says chief economist