Weather affects eurozone inflation, ECB paper finds

Bloc’s four biggest economies respond differently to changes in temperature and variability


A working paper published by the European Central Bank (ECB) examines how weather shocks affect the four largest eurozone economies: Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

In The asymmetric effects of weather shocks on euro area inflation, Matteo Ciccarelli, Friderike Kuik, and Catalina Martínez Hernández use high-frequency data on weather together with monthly information on inflation and output growth.

The paper finds that weather has “heterogeneous and asymmetric effects” on inflation in

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