Economics
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots
Banking systems’ long-term systemic risk has grown – ECB paper
Assets became safer but banking systems’ failures were more harmful, analysis finds
Fed’s Evans and Bullard downplay recession risks
Both presidents looking to increase the policy rate to around 3.5% by the end of the year
IMF paper proposes ‘policy space index’
Authors try to quantify countries’ room to respond to a “black swan” event
Understanding informal remittances
Better tracking of remittance flows could give central banks valuable insights to support policy, say Deepali Fernandes, Amil Aneja and Azar Sultanov
ECB paper argues for existence of ‘liquidity coverage channel’
Researchers analyse impact of eurozone central banks’ actions after onset of Covid-19 pandemic
US inflation expectations inch higher
New York Fed survey finds rise in expectations at one-year horizon, but not at longer term
FSB and IMF wrap up post-crisis data gaps initiative
Some issues remain despite “significant progress” since 2009, report finds
Holding the line: the right response to war and Covid
Jagjit Chadha offers advice to policy-makers struggling to navigate between economic shocks
Book notes: Two hundred years of muddling through, by Duncan Weldon
Insights into UK economic history offer lessons for today’s policy-makers
Atlanta Fed revises growth estimate downward
This quarter has the possibility of officially beginning a US recession
Central banks and UN working to improve remittance data
Flows are critical income sources for many economies, but data is often limited
Fed paper argues capitalism killed the Phillips curve
Shift in the balance of power between capital and labour likely to hold down inflation, authors find
Eurosystem’s bond holdings may hamper market functioning – paper
Asset scarcity caused by Covid-19 emergency programme has lowered repo rates, researchers say
Fed’s favoured inflation gauge falls
PCE inflation reading for April 2022 was down from March
Real house price growth slowing slightly, BIS says
Advanced economies still seeing price increases that are close to historic highs
Paper explains why ‘Fed put’ is not as reliable as investors might like
Disagreement between Fed and market can create perception central bank is “behind the curve”
IMF calls for action on fragmenting global economy
Senior officials say world is facing “confluence of calamities” and leaders have been complacent
NY Fed releases supply chain pressure tracker
Recent months have seen resurgence of supply chain bottlenecks
BIS report highlights macro risks of inequality
Persistent inequality could weaken policy and create negative feedback mechanism, research finds
Small drop in US CPI hints at inflation reprieve
Economists estimate US is past inflation peak, but other G7 nations may still be on the upward leg