Turkey’s Dornbusch moment

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Photo: G20 Argentina

The late, great Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Rudi Dornbusch is remembered for many things, but none more so than his quip about economic dynamics: “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.” This neatly encapsulates the situation in Turkey. Some of us have been forecasting a crisis for two years. (I plead guilty.) Now it’s arrived, and with a vengeance.

The roots go way back. Turkey’s official

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