Growth
BoE paper builds GDP-at-risk model
Authors generate “fat-tailed” distribution to explore economy’s tendency to hit lower bound on rates
The ‘golden age’ of central banking has passed
Central banks are up against multi-faceted challenges and weakened autonomy amid highly polarised inflation expectations
Somalia’s governor on rebuilding its central bank
Governor Abdullahi discusses payments systems and reviving Somalia’s war-damaged economy
South African Reserve Bank: the first 100 years
Central bankers and academics reflect on a tumultuous first century for Africa’s oldest central bank
The RBI’s next big question: how to normalise monetary policy?
India’s central bank needs to plan an exit from its efforts to manage the ‘impossible trinity’
BIS annual report: ‘disaster averted’ but world ‘not out of the woods’
Report weighs up three scenarios for “pandexit”, none of them without drawbacks
BIS’s Luiz Pereira on tackling the climate crisis
Deputy general manager highlights the challenge posed by radical uncertainty, the benefits of carbon budgeting, and the case for acting now
Inflation, Fed policy and emerging markets: the good, the bad and the ugly
Steve Kamin explores the global implications of rising inflation and interest rates in the US
Rising spillover risks from macro-prudential policies
Tools used to rein in credit in specific sectors can increase the riskiness of credit in other areas
Bank of England holds interest rates and asset purchases
MPC wants evidence spare capacity is being reduced but Haldane votes for lower asset purchases
Charles Goodhart on inflation targets, financial stability and the role of money
LSE professor says AIT a mistake, independence under threat amid inflation surge and climate stress tests unconvincing
Uganda’s central bank cuts rates to historic lows
Uncertainty around the future path of Covid-19 weighs on growth prospects, governor says
It’s time to smash Iran’s endemic inflation
As Iran goes to the polls, high inflation is still plaguing the economy. Steve Hanke looks at solutions
Powell says US is recovering faster than expected
Majority of FOMC members now expect policy rate hike in 2023, with no decision yet on taper
Spanish governor favours green monetary policy
Hernández de Cos stresses ECB should account for climate risks in its price stability mandate
Germany facing ‘strong upswing’ – Bundesbank
Central bank revises 2021 GDP growth forecast from 3% to 3.7%
Global recovery is ‘double edged’ for EMEs – Carstens
“Too soon” to say whether inflation will be sustained but markets may overreact, says BIS chief
ECB poised to clarify tapering of PEPP purchases
Analysts agree central bank views higher inflation as transitory and will maintain rate of purchases
ECB policy paper says unconventional policy worked
Paper says QE purchases explain “lion’s share” of changes to eurozone yield curves
Inequality can worsen recessions – BIS paper
But authors say there is little evidence that income inequality affects consumption in normal times
A return of the inflation monster?
Fears grow over the intellectual shift to running economies ‘hot’
The future of forward guidance
BNP Paribas Asset Management explores the current landscape around forward guidance, focusing on how central banks’ methods of communication are likely to evolve in the future. By Richard Barwell
Don’t dismiss inflation risks but don’t overreact, say central bankers
Sbordone, Smets and Vlieghe weigh up challenges for central banks in the “return towards normal”
The new era of money supply and its impact on policy
The empirical relationship between money and inflation has changed, writes Manmohan Singh, with Apoorv Bhargava and Peter Stella