Economics
The IFF China Report 2021
Insight and perspectives from the world's leaders, premier policy-makers and financiers
Dallas Fed: credit conditions improved for most in 2020
Study of Texas finds communities with more immigrants saw fewer benefits
‘Fiscal distress’ can reverse exchange rate dynamics – BIS paper
Authors emphasise “contingent nature” of exchange rate response to shocks
Inflation expectations rising – NY Fed survey
Survey finds consumers predicting higher prices, but also better labour market conditions
Central banks will need new tools if low rates persist – Rogoff
Governments must clamp down on crypto assets while central banks develop CBDCs, economist says
US CPI inflation reaches 5%
Figures follow predictions of “transitory” inflation rises by senior Fed officials
Germany facing ‘strong upswing’ – Bundesbank
Central bank revises 2021 GDP growth forecast from 3% to 3.7%
Global recovery is ‘double edged’ for EMEs – Carstens
“Too soon” to say whether inflation will be sustained but markets may overreact, says BIS chief
Economists win prize for agent-based forecast model
Authors say theirs is the first agent-based model to produce competitive economic forecasts
Financial sector still a headache for central bank modellers
Macro-financial links are difficult to integrate into key models, with progress since the global financial crisis slow. But some central banks are making breakthroughs
Mandatory climate disclosures needed now – senior central bankers
Greening monetary policy operations should also be a priority, policy-makers say
‘Run it hot’: the risks and rewards of a new policy era
Covid-19 has added impetus to an emerging intellectual shift in policy-making. But central banks face unresolved issues – on expectations, on fiscal policy, and on the capacity of the economy to ‘run hot’
Eurozone inflation reaches target for first time since 2018
Early estimates suggest HICP inflation hit 2% in May
The Belt and Road Initiative 2021 Survey – The impact of Covid‑19 on the BRI
The fourth annual Belt and Road Initiative survey reveals that the Covid‑19 pandemic has disrupted many projects despite China remaining committed to financing the initiative, which is expected to support future economic growth and environmental…
Inequality can worsen recessions – BIS paper
But authors say there is little evidence that income inequality affects consumption in normal times
Time series models need adapting for Covid-19 shock – ECB paper
Authors explain methods for making Phillips curves and VAR models more robust
IMF proposes $50bn plan to ‘end the Covid-19 pandemic’
“Upfront” financing is needed to accelerate vaccinations, say Georgieva, Gopinath and Agarwal
Energy prices boost eurozone inflation in April
Consumer price index increased year on year by 1.6%, as energy prices increased by 10%
Policymakers should consider adjusting ECB’s target – BdF paper
Lower eurozone r* points to adjustment of monetary policy strategy, researchers find
Fed’s Harker warns US higher education ‘is in peril’
Philadelphia Fed president calls for reforms, as colleges face up to $115 billion in deficits
Danish central bank urges use of payments data in forecasts
Data provides good forecasts during normal times, but deteriorates in stressed conditions
Asset managers should face minimum cash levels – ECB paper
Researchers say macro-prudential measure would improve market allocation of financial resources
BoE paper highlights link between mortgage limits and consumption
Authors find “new link” between down payment requirements and household consumption
Chilean central bank measures country’s carbon footprint
Study aims to create methodology to assess emissions and develop plan to cut footprint