Unemployment
US wage expectations rising, says NY Fed labour market survey
Both lowest acceptable transitionary wage and expected salary hit series highs
Should the ECB worry about divergent inflation?
Economists say widening readings across eurozone show lingering effect of energy price shock
PBoC cuts key rates as economy stutters
China stops publishing youth jobless rate after record-high figure in June
Focus is needed on improving central bank forecasts
Charles Goodhart believes tougher action over forecasting errors is preferable to policy-maker performance-related pay
US CPI inflation rises slightly
Rising shelter prices cause more than 90% of increase, but SF Fed predicts they will fall
Government employment has not recovered from pandemic – Fed
Low wages could be responsible from 450,000 missing state and local government workers in US
RBA holds policy rate as inflation eases
Lowe says inflation is falling but remains too high
PBoC holds key rate amid lacklustre GDP growth
Chinese economy grew 6.3% in second quarter, missing expectations by a full percentage point
Central banks average four forecast updates a year
Final decision on projections jointly taken by policy-makers and staff in most jurisdictions
Largest US banks pass the Fed’s stress test
Scenario saw banks continue lending despite losses three times greater than those of 2008 crisis
Italian and Portuguese leaders criticise ECB policy
Right-wing Meloni and centre-left Costa both sound warning notes on rates
Policy has not been tight long enough – governors
Hot labour markets boost wages and core inflation, making inflation persistent
New Zealand rejects RBNZ’s call for single price-stability goal
Updated central bank remit retains twin goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment
ECB ‘cannot declare victory yet’ over inflation – Lagarde
President stresses rates will need to be higher for longer to defeat persistent inflation
Chilean commission proposes broader central bank mandate
Elected councillors and experts will decide on proposal before voters decide in December
Financial security of US households ‘fell sharply’ in 2022
Inflation comes first in list of financial worries, Fed survey finds
Book notes: The Federal Reserve: a new history, by Robert L Hetzel
This book should become the standard reference for scholars
NBER paper proposes ‘resurrecting’ non-linear Phillips curve
Original version of the curve is “strongly non-linear” and helps explain current inflation, authors say
What economists learned from Covid-19
A rush of work on ‘epi-macro’ yielded breakthroughs and then faded. Will there be lasting benefits?
Chile governor warns committee against adding mandates
Debate over central bank role continues in Chile’s second attempt at new constitution
Youth disconnect could create ‘less-skilled workforce’ – Dallas Fed
Declining labour force participation is detaching younger people from work, authors find
Boston Fed expands programme to get people back into work
FedNow created high demand for IT roles, which sparked programme’s inception
Long-term unemployment can affect inflation – BoE paper
Non-linear Phillips curve helps explain finding that breaks with previous literature
Edmund Phelps and the search for a ‘new economy’
The Nobel Prize winner helped lay the foundations of modern macroeconomics. Now he is concerned something is deeply wrong with how policy-makers think about the economy