Unemployment
Towards a new monetary policy framework for the AI age
AI may render the traditional monetary policy toolkit less effective and the familiar rules of engagement obsolete, argues Biagio Bossone
Norges Bank strikes hawkish tone with rates hold
Inflation “in line” with June projection and two cuts still on table for this year, central bank says
Oil shocks create ‘persistent’ labour downturns – IMF paper
Gains for oil-exporting countries are “comparatively modest”, say researchers
Bowman is latest Fed member to call for July rates cut
Vice-chair for supervision joins Waller in saying risks to growth outweigh risks to inflation
Fed maintains wait-and-see approach with rate hold
Powell ignores Trump’s calls for easing amid president’s continued insults
Romania opts to hold, citing domestic and global uncertainty
Central bank cites fluctuating commodity prices, tariff risks and volatility resulting from national politics
FOMC vote rotation ‘distorts’ rates – NBER paper
Regional Fed presidents make decisions based on local conditions, research finds
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
Inflation expectations survey flashes warning signs in US
University of Michigan report, cited by Fed officials, says outlook had dropped in tandem with tariffs
Concentrated ownership in US means fewer jobs, lower pay – study
Chicago Fed research says resulting changes have not led to any commensurate rise in productivity
Iceland and Switzerland cut rates, while Sweden holds
Central banks highlight global developments and high levels of uncertainty
US farmers need extra revenue to make ends meet – research
Costs largely outweigh income generated by agri, says Richmond Fed study
Rates should stimulate economy in response to tariffs – study
Optimal monetary policy promotes employment and income, Minneapolis Fed paper argues
Upside risks from Trump tariffs prompted Fed to hold rates
FOMC minutes show that January’s decision was partly informed by potential changes in US trade policy
Fed vice-chair says rate cuts most likely over medium term
Jefferson says inflation and labour risks are in balance and cautions against immediate policy shift
Book notes: Central bank capitalism: monetary policy in times of crisis, by Joscha Wullweber
This book asks if independent monetary policy is feasible at a time when central banks prop up the poorly regulated shadow banking sector
Norges Bank says time is not yet right for easing
Central bank holds rates, but suggests cut is likely in March
Fed board members pledge caution in cutting rates
Governors say unemployment and inflation risks are roughly in balance
CNB’s Aleš Michl on tackling inflation, Friedman’s legacy and ditching DSGE
The Czech governor speaks about policy mistakes, targeting M2, diversifying into equities and gold, building new models and ending interest payments on minimum reserves
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bp
Powell says effects of Trump’s proposed policies, including tariffs, remain unclear
Demographics could trigger closures of US universities – study
Research by Philly Fed says fewer young people are enrolling, which is adding to financial pressures
ECB cuts rates by 25bp
Eurosystem disinflation “well on track” and council “did not discuss” TPI, says Lagarde
US inflation expectations tick up across all time horizons
NY Fed survey finds more respondents expect prices to rise over one- three- and five-year timeframes
US consumers predict growing pressure from inflation and debt
More respondents to NY Fed survey expect to miss payments and to face steeper price rises