Trade
ECB publishes latest eurozone trade and investment guide
“Bop and IIP book“ explains compilation of national and eurozone figures
Fed’s Powell sees China as major factor in global trade slowdown
Fed governor seeks to explain global trade slowdown, citing many factors but saying China “looms large” in the debate
IMF’s Rennhack outlines challenges facing LatAm economies
Robert Rennhack sees terms of trade driving real exchange rates; tells audience in Mexico region as a whole is in recession
Poloz upbeat on US and Canadian productivity prospects
Bank of Canada governor explores evolution of international trade; it may have fallen, but there are still opportunities for productivity growth, Poloz says
Brazil and Paraguay near local currency payment system
Cross-border system could account for 5% of all trade between the countries; importers and exporters can use own currencies
FCA paper investigates whether HFTs predict orders
Working paper finds patterns consistent with HFTs anticipating order flows over longer time periods, but authors unable to ascertain cause
BIS paper says trade finance impacts global spillovers
Working paper emphasises importance of including trade finance when modelling global shocks, finding variations in price stickiness are important
Trade structure: from raw materials to machinery and services
China’s export structure has changed radically over the past three decades, moving from being dominated by raw materials in the 1980s to machinery and services in the 2000s.
St. Louis Fed paper considers impact of trade shocks on labour market
Working paper examines effects of trade shocks on labour markets, finding the increase in import competition from China after 2000 actually boosted aggregate US welfare
CNB paper questions strength of ‘border effect’
Studies using outdated methodologies overestimate the impact of national borders on trade, authors say; effect is stronger in emerging markets
IMF paper examines causes of financial market spillovers
Research finds financial market spillovers are affected by ‘bilateral portfolio asset holdings, as well as a country’s geographical preferences’
Paper finds evidence of multiplier effect in food trade policy
IMF working paper studies the relationship between trade policy and food prices and finds evidence of a multiplier effect in its data sample
Latvian paper proposes refinement to definition of trade
Working paper produces measure to better account for the value added component of trade; authors argue this better captures a country’s contribution to world markets
US and Europe more vital for Australian trade than thought
Australian goods being exported to western markets indirectly via east Asia, skewing statistics, according to paper using ‘complementary' estimates of value-added trade
Devaluation would not hit Albanian short-run trade balance, research suggests
Evaluation of Albanian trade with its biggest trading partners finds little evidence of the deterioration in trade balance suggested by the ‘J-curve' hypothesis
ECB paper says global economy still haunted by ‘spectre of protectionism’
Researchers at the European Central Bank find evidence that countries still regress to trade protectionism in the face of recessions or loss of competitiveness; call for international peer pressure
ECB paper proposes new metrics for competitiveness
Researchers say that conventional indicators of competitiveness are losing their relevance as production spreads across borders, and propose two new measures based on concept of global value chains
Macklem says Canadian exporters must look to new markets
Slowing domestic demand must be replaced with demand from other countries, says Bank of Canada deputy; faster-growing emerging markets will hold the key, he says
Terms of trade volatility exacerbates shock effects for small open economies
Research conducted at the Reserve Bank of Australia says big fluctuations in terms of trade compound the effects of a terms of trade shock in small, open economies
Fall in equities most significant global impact of euro crisis, says ECB paper
Working paper measures impact of euro debt crisis on global financial markets; says the transmission ‘hinges more on trade than on finance’
Incomplete information can lessen the effect of shocks, paper finds
Australian research finds economic agents unable to tell how permanent a term of trade shock will be, but incomplete information means their reaction to shocks is more cautious
RBI report condemns ‘excessive’ gold demand
Reserve Bank of India working group recommends gold imports are reduced to protect the country’s balance of payments and currency reserves
Asic to consult on trade repositories in first quarter 2013
The Australian securities regulator is looking to consult on its trade repository plans at the end of the first quarter, with an eye to implementing the regime later in the year
Solomon Islands hit by trade deficit
Quarterly review of economic performance in the Solomon Islands reveals drop in country’s trade balance; weaker export production responsible