Recession
ECB researcher views liquidity shocks through enhanced DGE lens
Model aims to more accurately capture equity premia, finding that this amplifies liquidity shocks and explains a ‘significant fraction’ of business cycle fluctuations
Fed research paper finds uncertainty more damaging at the zero lower bound
New paper finds the zero lower bound has exacerbated the effect of uncertainty in the ‘Great Recession'
Book notes: The Great Recession: Market Failure or Policy Failure?
This is a hugely important book that should be read by all central bankers, bank supervisors, politicians and newspaper editors
BIS paper examines link between low growth and recessions
Bank for International Settlements research studies relationship between low growth and recession in the US; finds some growth patterns can forecast a sharp decline in GDP
Bank of Canada paper studies risk and debt maturity
Working paper finds firms facing higher volatility tend to issue debt with a longer maturity; increase in maturity period accelerates during a recession
Book notes: The Money Trap
Robert Pringle’s new book is driven by a sense of missionary zeal
Thailand blames floods and ‘likely’ eurozone recession for rate cut
Bank of Thailand drops benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%; says recession now "likely" in the eurozone
IMF paper identifies new approach to forecasting recessions
Fund study says forecasts for recessions can be improved by adopting formal methods to select data
Fed liquidity helped US escape Great Recession: NY Fed paper
New York Federal Reserve study says Fed liquidity policies helped economy avert another Great Depression
Recessions and banking crises are strongly interdependent: BoE paper
Bank of England study co-authored by Martin Weale identifies useful indicators that can help predict banking crises
Regaining confidence essential to euro crisis solution: Finland’s Liikanen
Bank of Finland governor Erkki Liikanen says implementation of European Financial Stability Facility good first step to restoring credibility
Early monetary exit risks return to recession: KC fed paper
Kansas City Federal Reserve study shows an early monetary policy exit can lead to a double-dip recession
Bank-based economies struggle more during recoveries: IMF paper
Fund study shows bank-based economies find it more difficult than market-based economies to recover from economic crises
ECB paper identifies source of slump in global trade
European Central Bank study says numerous components of final expenditure contributed to sharp decline in global trade during financial crisis
RBA paper on lessons from Australia's labour market since 2000
Reserve Bank of Australia study says evidence from labour market since 2000 shows decline in number of hours worked can prove an effective adjustment mechanism during downturns
Small businesses hit harder during recession: NY Fed
New York Federal Reserve study shows weak consumer demand for small firms’ products and services led to disproportionate decline for these firms
Financial cycles have strong economic implications: IMF paper
Fund study examines whether the close correlation between business and financial cycles is synchronised or coincidental
Creditless recoveries not uncommon: IMF paper
Fund study finds creditless recoveries are common and may result from impaired financial intermediation
St Louis Fed paper denies direct Fed link to 1930s recession
St Louis Federal Reserve study says Fed’s doubling of reserve requirements was not cause of contraction in 1930s
NY Fed’s Tracy: 'Great Recession' distinguished by severity
New York Federal Reserve executive vice-president Joseph Tracy says moniker of Great Recession attributed to severity not length of downturn
Short-time programmes ease unemployment concerns: CEPR study
Centre for Economic Policy Research study says initiatives for short-time work programmes can help reduce unemployment during recessions
Barbados’s Worrell on social impact of unemployment
Central Bank of Barbados governor DeLisle Worrell describes employment challenges of everyday Barbadians
Labour market essential component of recovery: NY Fed’s Tracy
New York Federal Reserve executive vice-president Joseph Tracy says shape of US economic recovery relies on labour market improvements
RBA’s Battellino: US households worst off from recession
Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Ric Battellino says US households share greater burden with every recession