Recession
Build-up of public debt causes longer recessions for EMs – paper
“Less supportive” fiscal policy makes emerging markets more prone to problems associated with accumulation of public debt; authors highlight the importance of fiscal buffers
Spanish paper proposes new measures for economic recoveries
Researchers apply new tests to data on US post-war expansions
ECB bulletin emphasises importance of monitoring uncertainty
Increases in uncertainty adversely impact the economy, research says, encouraging policymakers to introduce measures to mitigate its impact
Factors behind weak growth in advanced economies do not apply to South Africa – Sarb deputy
Mminele says 2008 recession did not create savings glut in South Africa, suggesting other factors such as a shortage of skills are responsible
Fiscal stimulus works even in debt-driven recessions – Cleveland Fed paper
Study uses defence spending to estimate fiscal multiplier, finding it is higher in areas with larger debt burdens, contrary to the fears of some economists
ECB paper explores public and private employment link
Research contradicts literature that claims an increase in public employment crowds out private employment, at least in recessions
Summers: Fed is not ready for next crisis
Secular stagnation has left Federal Reserve short on firepower as the next recession looms, economist says; urges greater willingness to risk inflation overshoot and action by fiscal authorities
Dutch paper explores price level dispersion
‘Idiosyncratic shocks’ have greater impact on price level dispersion within the eurozone than in the US, authors say
Oil prices are key drivers of metal prices, Colombian paper suggests
Research utilising ‘frequency-domain approach’ finds oil prices may be a key drivers of metal prices; consider implications for commodity-rich nations
Countries under credit stress should ‘front-load’ fiscal consolidation, says ECB paper
Front-loading will bring confidence effects, the working paper suggests
Irish central bank paper finds high cost to hasty austerity
Economists find most of the costs of fiscal consolidation from 2011-13 could have been avoided if policy-makers waited until the zero lower bound was no longer a constraint
BoJ paper builds model of secular stagnation
Authors find scrapping the idea of a single representative household allows New Keynesian models to portray secular stagnation – and a high inflation target fixes the problem
ECB research flags signs of Spanish decoupling
Recent recessions appear to have caused Spain’s economy to diverge from those of other major eurozone countries, working paper warns
BoE wartime minutes show sharp contrast between Court of then and now
Minutes from 1914-1946 show an evolving Court of Directors, but one radically different from today; the latest release covers both World Wars and the Great Depression
The ‘Great Moderation' shows no sign of ending, Spanish paper finds
The great recession did not mark an end to the great moderation whose low volatility could be hampering a recovery, according to a new paper
Massive stimulus saved China from ‘great recession'
The rest of the world could have avoided recession too, had other governments dared implement such a ‘bold and powerful' stimulus package, St. Louis Fed paper suggests
Caruana outlines path to recovery from global balance sheet recession
BIS general manager says global economy requires co-ordinated monetary, prudential and fiscal policies in order to recover from the recession caused by financial boom and bust
Asian decoupling a figment of the great moderation, says BIS paper
Evidence of Asia's economic decoupling from the rest of the world was a symptom of low co-movement during tranquil economic times, which ended with the arrival of the financial crisis
Bundesbank research seeks to disentangle recession and depression
Discussion paper isolates unique features of depressions and booms to separate them out from recessions and expansions; results suggest recent ‘Great Recession’ was not a depression
Falling asset prices 'significantly associated' with onset of G-7 recessions
IMF working paper examining the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries finds equity price drops are larger and more frequent than house price drops
Fiscal multiplier tends to double in times of crisis, Bank of Portugal paper shows
The paper analyses the size of short-run fiscal multipliers in both normal and crisis times
‘Belief-twisting' macro shocks can reverberate through generations, research finds
Banque de France researcher examines how households' expectations can take decades to recover after a macroeconomic shock
ECB researcher views liquidity shocks through enhanced DGE lens
Model aims to more accurately capture equity premia, finding that this amplifies liquidity shocks and explains a ‘significant fraction’ of business cycle fluctuations