Phillips curve
Dallas Fed report calls for better understanding of global finance
Globalisation annual report urges monetary policy-makers to take account of global financial flows and seeks a better understanding of interdependence
Leading central bankers unsure about impact of technology on monetary policy
Carney, Kuroda and Coeure debate the elusive Phillips curve in Davos; rejecting ‘technological pessimism', Carney says ‘just catching up is a huge opportunity of growth potential'
BoE research identifies strong impact from long-term unemployment on inflation
Working paper finds evidence that models incorporating linear Phillips curves are underestimating the effect of long-term unemployment on wage inflation
ECB finds Phillips curve 'insufficient’ to forecast inflation
Article in latest ECB monthly bulletin finds evidence of a ‘curve-type relationship’ between inflation and economic slack, but the specification is ‘subject to considerable uncertainty’
Wages more sticky in the US than in Japan, BoJ paper finds
The empirical fit of the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve is generally superior for Japan, auhors note; inflation indexation plays a key role in the US, but is less important in Japan, they add
Independence no substitute for rules-based policy
Thomas Cargill summarises the conclusions of four papers by world-leading economists on the issue of central bank governance and finds independence is overrated
Borio-led BIS team proposes new approach to measure output gap
Trying to calculate the output gap using the Phillips curve is problematic, say Basel-based economists; new approach finds financial cycle proxies add ‘significant information' to the estimate
Minneapolis paper finds stable Phillips curve in regional data
Researchers find relationship between unemployment and inflation holds in regional data but breaks down at national level; suggest this could be used for policy-making
Philly Fed paper tests accuracy of Phillips curve in forecasting inflation
Philadelphia Federal Reserve study shows accuracy of Phillips curve models in forecasting inflation is highest during economic downturns
Anchoring inflation eases deflation risks: IMF paper
Fund study on US inflation dynamics shows well-anchored inflation reduces risk of deflation
Semi-structural models and inflation forecasting: Bank of Canada paper
Bank of Canada study finds semi-structural models best traditional New Keynesian Phillips Curve, bivariate vector autoregression models at inflation forecasting
Bundesbank solves German inflation and unemployment anomaly
Bundesbank study finds new, significant trade-off between unemployment and inflation in Germany
Expansionary policy commitment redundant: Norges Bank
Norges Bank study says low interest rate rhetoric at central banks ineffective under neo-classical Phillips curve model
St Louis Fed: FOMC largely ignored Phillips curve framework
A St Louis Federal Reserve study on Fed transcripts shows the FOMC was split on whether to use the Philips curve in monetary policy decisions