Phillips curve
Phillips curve ‘alive and will soon be kicking’ – Fed’s Williams
John Williams expects US inflation to reassert itself soon
Fall in hours worked can flatten Phillips curve, Italian paper says
Changes to “intensive margin of labour utilisation” may make inflation less responsive to employment
More easing next year if inflation does not pick up – RBNZ
Global supply chains, the rise of China and the digital economy led to a low traded-goods inflation
December hike in focus despite FOMC inflation worries
Some Fed policymakers fret that inflation expectations are too low to bring inflation back to target, but broad view is of an economy gathering pace
BoE’s Cunliffe defends dissenting vote
Deputy governor says uncertainty over Phillips curve implies policymakers should act cautiously
Inflation shocks in Mexico temporary, Carstens says
Medium and long-term inflation expectations remain close to 3% target, governor says
Low-paid jobs may explain flat Phillips curve – research
As recovery continues, this phenomenon should dissipate, authors say
John Williams on the neutral rate of interest and mandate change
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco speaks about the plunge in the natural rate of interest, and why it means central banks should work together to review their price stability targets
Central banks may be thinking wrongly about inflation – Borio
BIS economist says inflation may not always and everywhere be a monetary phenomenon, which could help explain why the natural rate is so low
Brexit brings inflationary risks, Carney says
“Continued erosion of slack” is putting pressure on MPC, governor says
Falling import prices and lower expectations hamper Fed, Brainard says
Long period of low inflation may affect households’ inflation expectations, Fed board member says
Bullard: low unemployment does not mean high inflation
Recent research shows US unemployment could fall to 2.5%, while inflation would be 1.86%, says St Louis Fed president
Flexible working may shift Nairu, ECB’s Mersch warns
Technology may increase insecurity and weaken collective bargaining, says senior ECB figure
US policy having a larger impact on credit – BIS paper
Monetary policy’s effects on credit and housing markets have grown while the effects on inflation have weakened, paper finds
BoE’s Haldane examines changing nature of work
Rise of “gig economy” and self-employment may have weakened wage-setting power among workers, the BoE chief economist says; he indicates a willingness to vote for a hike later this year
BoE research finds support for Phillips curve in micro data
Authors turn to direct measures of firms’ expectations and employ new instrumental variables in search of empirical support for the Phillips curve
Book notes: A few hares to chase, by Alan Bollard
The former Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor has produced a interesting account of the life of engineer-turned-economist Bill Phillips
Models using service inflation better at predicting economic trends, Cleveland Fed paper finds
Researchers find economic forecasting accuracy improves when based on models that tie together the unemployment rate with inflation in services
Inflation targeting should be improved, not replaced, RBA paper says
Rather than a ‘fundamental re-engineering’ of inflation targeting, central banks should adopt a flexible approach that pays some heed to output, authors argue
Household expectations help flesh out inflation picture, research finds
Research published in the latest Bank of Canada review argues that looking at the behaviour of expectations since the crisis helps in understanding evolution of inflation
RBA paper finds only weak support for sticky information Phillips curve
Paper provides ‘first estimates’ of a sticky information Phillips curve for Australia, finding the curve fits poorly with the inflation-targeting era but better in earlier years
ECB paper models Philips curve from professional forecasts
Working paper finds the curve consistent with professional forecasts has flattened since the financial crisis, with the relationship between inflation and unemployment weakening
French paper models flattening Philips curve
Working paper develops a two-country, new-Keynesian model to replicate the flattening of the curve in developed countries over the past 25 years, a trend widely attributed to globalisation
Paper tackles US inflation puzzle with new Phillips curve
Authors of research published by IMF find core inflation movements can be explained by anchored expectations and short-term unemployment “stories”