Phillips curve
Phillips curve still explains eurozone inflation movements – research
Results may become a focal point of debate in the forthcoming ECB strategy review
The challenges facing Christine Lagarde
The new ECB president will need to focus on a successful review of the ECB’s monetary and communications policy, while encouraging fiscal stimulus and structural reform
30 years of forecasting: have central banks learned anything?
Forecasting models are constantly being upgraded, but forecast errors are still persistent. What more can central banks do?
Overcoming deflation: Japan’s experience and challenges ahead
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda explains how Japan’s long battle against deflation may offer insights for the future conduct of monetary policy at other central banks
Proposal to axe Phillips curve triggers controversy
“One cannot just ignore an equation,” retorts Olivier Blanchard
Cleveland Fed paper looks for reasons for flatter Phillips curve
Monetary policy responses to “output deviations” may be key factor, researcher argues
RBNZ paper hunts cause of flattening Phillips curve
Paper explores trend of declining relationship between inflation and economic activity
San Francisco Fed researcher seeks to improve Phillips curve
Introducing an “interaction variable” can increase predictive performance, researcher says
FOMC’s normalisation ‘largely successful’, St Louis Fed president says
Fed must “tread carefully” though, as inflation and yield curves offer challenges, Bullard says
Ageing workforce depresses wage inflation – BIS paper
Demographic change could be behind weakness of inflation despite record-low unemployment
Developed world needs fiscal boost – Romanian deputy governor
Once wages recover pre-crisis level, inflation will rise fast, research finds
Phillips curve still applies to Sweden, Riksbank researcher says
Firm-level data indicates that traditional relationship still holds, paper argues
Globalisation is helping to flatten Phillips curve – Fed paper
Price sensitivity to output changes is significantly weaker in high trade-intensive industries
US expectations key influence on inflation - San Francisco Fed paper
Fed must maintain inflation expectations around target, researchers say
Low US unemployment unlikely to foster sudden wage growth – research
Fed projections see unemployment rate falling to 3.5% by the end of 2019
Researchers probe weakness in Italy’s core inflation
Labour and financial markets important influences on weaker inflation – Bank of Italy paper
Powell downgrades Phillips curve importance
Unemployment forecasts are not too good to be true, Fed chairman argues
Inattention helps explain flat Phillips curve – Fed paper
Inflation may be less sensitive to shocks because people are not paying attention, authors say
IMF authors dismiss global Phillips curve as euro inflation driver
Domestic factors largely behind “remarkably stable” inflation in eurozone
James Bullard on 2% rates, tariffs and Fed leadership
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis speaks about the impact of US trade policies, the disruption to the banking industry from Silicon Valley, shrinking the Fed balance sheet and the potential for agent-based modelling
Leading governors analyse evolving inflation-employment relationship
Powell, Draghi, Lowe and Kuroda assess causes keeping wage growth low across the world
Good policy makes Phillips curve harder to identify – BoE’s Tenreyro
MPC member argues fears the Phillips curve has disappeared are “largely misplaced”
Labour supply elasticity may hamper wage growth – Riksbank’s Ohlsson
As economic demand rises it can be satisfied by a higher number of workers
Plunging shares may be another sign of economic strength
The sell-off may be a reaction to stronger economic indicators and expectations of a hawkish Fed, say analysts