Monetary policy
Rajan picked as BIS board vice-chair as he calls for global ‘rules of the game’
RBI governor chosen to take over position Masaaki Shirakawa vacated in 2013; delivers lecture in Frankfurt calling for global ‘rules of the game’
No fireworks as Bank of England keeps rate options open
Rates remain on hold as BoE balances domestic strength with signs of weakness overseas; MPC hints a few forces could prompt an earlier hike than markets are predicting
BoE Court recommends forecasting rethink
Review of forecasting sheds light on strengths and weaknesses of central bank’s approach; recommends more systematic performance evaluation and new modelling techniques
Rising mortgage rates do not demand policy response, says RBA’s Stevens
Recent increases in mortgage rates have reversed some of the central bank’s easing, but there is no need to lean against the movement at present, governor says
Improved inflation outlook gives Icelandic central bank room for manoeuvre
Shallower path for near-term inflation allows central bank to make smaller rate hike than planned, but the longer-term picture still shows inflation overshooting the target
Research assesses South Africa’s vulnerability to Fed hike
Countries with large ratios of external financing needs to foreign exchange could be more vulnerable to Fed rate hikes, working paper finds
Economists challenge foundations of monetary economics
‘Neo-Fisherian’ approaches use standard New-Keynesian models to show that cutting interest rates will produce lower, not higher, inflation – and the result is surprisingly difficult to overturn
Riksbank unleashes further easing
Central bank hopes extended asset purchase programme and commitment to keep rates lower for even longer will help reinforce a gradual upward trend in growth and inflation
Adaptive learning models offer route out of liquidity traps, paper argues
An adaptive learning-based macro model shows monetary easing policies can end a liquidity trap under certain conditions; empirical studies of easing differ widely on its effects
Long-term low interest rates risk financial instability, Geneva report argues
Long-run accommodative monetary policy could raise risks to financial instability, Charles Bean and other economists argue; issuance of leveraged loans in US corporate market on the rise
Bank of Uganda takes rate hikes to 600bp in five meetings
Bank of Uganda raises rates for fifth consecutive time by 100bp to 17% in a move to curb inflation; sees earlier moves taking effect
BoE needs to avoid getting ‘behind the curve’, says McCafferty
The monetary policy committee member warns against leaving the rate hike "too late", making it harder to raise it gradually to minimise disruption to households and businesses
Eichengreen says central banks lack will not ability to tackle deflation
Central banks have the tools to deal with bad deflation if they are willing to act aggressively enough, economist argues; broadening asset purchases or helicopter money are both options
Further rate hikes likely as Chile raises 25bp
Central bank lifts rate to 3.25% in first move in four years; analysts suggest the move is an effort to rein in expectations
BoE’s new MPC member grilled on financial assets
Treasury Committee questions Gertjan Vlieghe on real or perceived conflict of interest; Ian McCafferty justifies view on rate hike in reappointment hearing
IMF sees divergent risks in new outlook
IMF revises growth outlook for this year and next, while noting transformation in risks; Maurice Obstfeld discussed emerging market policy in anticipation of Fed hike
IMF working paper explores spillovers between United States and eurozone
Spillovers from the eurozone to the US have been ‘considerable’ since 2014, reflecting policy easing in Europe, IMF paper notes
Lagarde calls for ‘policy upgrade’ across the globe
Managing director of the IMF tells advanced economies to ‘fully incorporate’ spillovers in decision-making, and eurozone to tackle problem with non-performing loans
Global factors harming domestic policy transmission in Asia, IMF research finds
Authors find global factors help to explain why bank funding in Asian economies has such a limited role in transmitting monetary policy
Botswana research weighs impact of various instruments on credit
While interest rates may be more effective at influencing credit than reserve requirements, more ‘direct’ macro-prudential measures could be even better, Botswana article finds
ECB paper considers how to mitigate US spillovers
Global economies could mitigate their vulnerability to US monetary policy decisions through a range of different policy actions, research finds.
Norway signals further easing as it cuts again
Norwegian central bank looks to cut rates further with inflation set to fall back to 2% over the forecast horizon
Riksbank paper takes stock of macro-prudential landscape
A survey of the empirical literature on macro-prudential policy says various tools work best in different contexts; more research is needed on combining macro-prudential and monetary policy
SMEs possibly worst hit by fragmentation of monetary policy transmission, ECB paper finds
Small and medium enterprises may have suffered most from fragmentation in monetary policy transmission following the financial crisis, according to research