Monetary policy
Uncertainty matters for forward guidance success – BoE paper
Authors show that introducing uncertainty generates significantly different macroeconomic effects, with implications for policymaking
Haldane: central banks could ‘gamify’ communications
The game Monopoly could be the next tool in central bank’s communication toolbox, Haldane says, warning complex language breeds distrust
Inflation worries prompt further action from Mexico
Mexico slows pace of rate hikes amid inflation worries and volatile exchange rate; monetary policy committee will closely watch US economy, latest announcement says
Bank of Israel revamps policy communications
New approach to communicating monetary policy decisions as committee moves to an eight-meeting cycle
End of ‘hiking cycle’ has been reached – Sarb’s Kganyago
South African Reserve Bank publishes improved inflation forecast as the MPC votes to leave interest rates at 7%; uncertainty around the exchange rate is still a concern
IMF working paper examines the impact of “de-cashing” on monetary policy
IMF working paper examines the impact of “de-cashing” on monetary policy, claiming transmission would become “easier” and “faster”
Bank of Ghana starts to unwind tight monetary policy
Central bank slashes interest rates to 23.5% in largest cut since 2010; inflation shows signs of improvement but certain risks still loom over prices
Extended monetary easing in US has larger impact abroad – paper
IMF paper examines the impact of periods of prolonged monetary easing on risk-taking behaviour; leverage ratio and other measures of vulnerability increase
Book notes: Competition and Stability in Banking, by Xavier Vives
Xavier Vives has written a fascinating book that highlights many important issues in banking regulation. But there are some flaws in his argument
Women on policy boards support prudent decision-making – research
Paper examines the impact of women on monetary policy decision making; authors’ results reveal the presence of women tends to lead to more “hawkish” decisions
PBoC appoints two to monetary policy committee
Guo Shuqing and Ding Xuedong join policymaking panel in reshuffle of senior officials
Third of businesses think investment has been ‘too low’ – BoE survey
Bank of England publishes results of survey of UK firms in latest quarterly bulletin; businesses experienced both real economy and financial “obstacles” to investment
Turkey keeps tightening with secondary instruments
Hike in late liquidity facility gives room for further tightening, as the central bank responds to inflation hitting double figures
BoE’s Forbes dissents as inflation looms
MPC member votes for 25bp hike as inflation looks set to exceed target until “at least” 2020; other members sitting on the fence, for now
Fed delivers 25bp hike
Fed makes rate hike that many FOMC members have been hinting at for weeks; committee gives bullish signals on the outlook
IMF research uncovers ‘puzzling’ effect of QE on the current account
Authors see QE having significant impact only when capital mobility is low; findings suggest “unexplained variation” between QE and capital mobility
Tanzanian central bank slashes discount rate
Central bank cuts discount rate for the first time since 2013, from 16% to 12%; increase in NPLs has discouraged commercial banks from lending
Finnish paper analyses Chinese central bank’s ‘window guidance’
PBoC may have to move away from using lending quotas, researchers argue
CBRT under pressure as inflation breaches 10%
Consumer prices rising at their fastest rate since 2012, leaving the central bank in a difficult position
RBNZ’s Wheeler: policy now has ‘neutral bias’
Risks to future rate movements “equally weighted”, governor says, though plenty of domestic and global risks could knock the outlook off course
Interest rate effects weaker at low levels – Borio and Gambacorta
Supply of loans becomes less responsive to policy rate movements when interest rates are already very low, likely due to impact on bank profits, authors say
Fed needs quarterly monetary policy report, Bullard says
St Louis president argues for better Fed communication when it comes to monetary policy decisions; a quarterly report would align the US with international best practice
Bank of Italy paper looks at impact of monetary policy shocks
The impacts of eurozone and US shocks have diverged since the onset of the financial crisis, the working paper says
Fed could raise rates ‘fairly soon’ – minutes
Minutes show committee members will be watching labour and inflation data very closely; raising rates would offer “flexibility” in responding to economic changes