Macroeconomics
Bank of Italy paper compares US recession-forecasting methods
Measure of uncertainty out-performs even yield curve in short term, researchers say
ECB paper presents new measure of underlying inflation
“PCCI” measure does not exclude HICP items and gives timely notice of turning points, authors say
Information drives transatlantic policy spillovers – ECB paper
Tighter ECB policy often causes financial easing in US due to “information effect”, researcher argues
Austrian paper estimates effects of European helicopter money
Researchers use data on likely consumption of windfall income from survey of 17 European countries
Sticky prices play key role in monetary policy responses – ECB paper
Author finds different US industries’ react very differently to monetary policy decisions
Central bank research may be biased by career concerns, paper finds
Central bankers are more likely to be promoted if they find QE is effective, study shows
Flu pandemic of 1918 hit poor economies hardest – ECB paper
Researchers say evidence indicates lower income countries may be worst hit by Covid-19
Supply curves may be convex – ECB paper
Findings imply that Phillips curve is convex and fiscal policy is state-dependent, authors say
Modellers should not exclude pandemic-era data – ECB paper
Excluding pandemic data from time series would “vastly underestimate uncertainty”, authors argue
Book notes: Quest for restoring financial stability in India, by Viral Acharya
A definitive contribution to the political economy of central banking in emerging economies, but Acharya does not acknowledge the challenges moving forward
Raising inflation expectations may depress growth – Jackson Hole paper
More nuanced communication would help public understand state of the economy, say researchers
BoE open to heterodox tools in new research agenda
Traditional tools of economic analysis “cannot always answer every question”, says Andrew Bailey
Covid-19 could depress growth for decades – Jackson Hole paper
“Pyschological scarring” could severely stunt future investment, researchers argue
Argentina requests new IMF programme
Government and central bank say economic stabilisation is not possible without recovery
Demand driving fall in US inflation – San Francisco paper
Economic sectors sensitive to Covid-19 saw big drop in demand, researcher finds
Ageing population helps explain inequality in US – BIS paper
Firms gain greater market power as workers grow older, authors say
Fed paper: market power can cause inequality and instability
Market power can explain a lot of recent undesirable “secular trends”, authors say; redistribution could have macro-prudential benefits
Covid-19 challenges IMF debt-restructuring framework
Process needs tweaking to address pandemic-related issues, former IMF general counsel says
Share buybacks limits monetary policy- BdF paper
Use of low-cost debt for buy-backs cuts spending on employment and capital good- researchers
Book notes: The state of economics, the state of the world, edited by Basu, Rosenblatt and Sepúlveda
The 2016 contributions of Nobel Prize-winning economists and others remain relevant to today
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high
US unemployment stats understate problem – research
Peterson Institute research says BLS figures fail to include all workers affected by pandemic
US facing new challenges as Covid cases surge – Powell
Powell warns of public confidence hit as US infections soar past previous peak
US economy entering ‘bounce back’ phase – Powell
Fed chair forced to defend move to follow through with corporate bond purchases in Senate hearing