Inflation
BIS paper analyses demographic influence on money supply
Bank for International Settlements research examines impact of baby boomers on inflation; predicts trouble ahead for central banks
RBA holds rate as global growth softens
Stable inflation, close to target domestic growth and 'subdued' international economic picture lead Reserve Bank of Australia board to leave benchmark rate at 3.5%
ECB’s Cœuré highlights information content of inflation-linked securities
Benoît Cœuré outlines use of inflation-linked financial products as indicators of inflation expectations; says information content is useful but methods require further study
BoJ’s Morimoto outlines ways to combat deflation
Yoshihisa Morimoto emphasises importance of ‘capturing’ demand to overcome deflation; says CPI is currently at 0% but is expected to rise towards 1% target in fiscal 2013
Iceland surveys market economic expectations
Central Bank of Iceland survey finds changes in inflation expectations; also a shift in the market’s perception of monetary policy
National Bank of Hungary cuts rates despite high inflation
Central bank cuts policy rate amid worsening growth figures and weak outlook; however, inflation expected to remain above 3% target “over a sustained period”
Can Japan afford to grow?
Japan has managed to maintain living standards during its two ‘lost decades’, but its efforts to do so now represent obstacles to achieving sustainable growth. By Ryo Watabe.
Central Bank of Chile paper tests inflation forecast models
Working paper compares inflation forecast accuracy of new autoregressive model and “traditional” univariate models; finds improvement in short run but mixed results over longer horizon
BoJ’s Shirakawa calls for 'drastic deregulation' to promote growth
Masaaki Shirakawa sets out possibilities for encouraging increased investment to promote growth and inflation expectations; firms reluctant to borrow despite monetary easing
Riksbank deputy describes “surprisingly strong” economy
Kerstin af Jochnick says Swedish economy has performed well during the past quarter, but weak performance in the eurozone has caused large appreciation of krona and uncertain inflation path
Bank of Namibia cuts rates due to uncertain economic outlook
Central bank reduces benchmark rate by 50 basis points; says cut necessary to support economy despite inflationary pressure and “rapid” growth in consumer credit
South African paper assesses micro data and policy responses
Sarb working paper explores pricing conduct at a micro-data-set level and how this affects monetary policy; finds results diverge from Bayesian estimation techniques
ECB paper finds new commodity transmission link for inflation
European Central Bank working paper explores relationship between demand shocks and inflation; reveals commodity prices indirectly magnify the effects
RBA minutes show bond yields at “historic low”
Reserve Bank of Australia’s August monetary policy minutes note historically low bond yields; offshore purchases of Australian dollar remain high
Central Bank of Chile holds rates as currency appreciates
Benchmark interest rate left at 5% amid international uncertainty and appreciating peso; first time currency’s gain has been highlighted since dollar-buying programme
Bank of Canada estimates measurement bias in CPI
Article assesses degree of bias in the consumer prices index; suggests more frequent updating of goods basket would allow for more accurate measurement
UK inflation figures show surprise rise in July
Office for National Statistics surprises markets by announcing CPI inflation rose to 2.6% in July; Bank of England last week predicted the rate would continue to fall this year
National Bank of Ukraine figures show end of deflationary period
Inflation figures show annualised CPI inflation rose from -0.3% in June to 0% in July; economic department deputy says figures are ‘close to optimal’
Bangladesh Bank seminar argues inflation differential is a monetary phenomenon
Researchers present evidence of reasons behind inflation differential between Bangladesh and India; say gap was greater when money supply in Bangladesh was growing faster
RBA reveals brighter growth outlook
Reserve Bank of Australia improves 2012 growth estimate; strong figures offset by uncertainty regarding external developments and possible upward trend for inflation
Japan holds rates and delays disbursement of fund provision
Bank of Japan maintains benchmark rate at near zero; puts off first issuance of fund provision due to reform plans for Libor
Banque de France paper finds limited inflation impact of macro-prudential policy
Working paper searches for possible conflict of interest between monetary and macro-prudential policy; says risk is small but policies should nevertheless be co-ordinated
Reserve Bank of Fiji annual report highlights steady recovery
Annual report for 2011 reviews policy challenges throughout year; says central bank delivered on mandate of low inflation and stable reserves while helping to spur growth
Bank of Korea strikes melancholy note in policy announcement
South Korea notes struggling economic scenes both at home and abroad; MPC decides to hold benchmark rate as a consequence