Inflation
Still room to support domestic economic growth after cut, says Ugandan governor
Exchange rate movements remain key risk to inflation, says Tumusiime-Mutebile, as Bank of Uganda cuts interest rates by 100bps
UK inflation jump to 1% is just ‘tip of the iceberg’
Latest inflation data shows leap from 0.6% in August to 1% in September; former MPC member Sentance says this is just tip of the iceberg
Foreign investment ‘restored’ exchange rates after policy shocks – paper
Data from Colombian central bank shows foreign exchange intervention have “short-lived effects” on prices; over the medium term, foreign capital flows push exchange rate back to original level
Neutral policy stance needed for ‘extended’ period – MAS
Singapore’s central bank says inflation is trending in the right direction, but notes economic growth is unlikely to pick up over the next year
BoE corporate bond purchases off to rapid start
Barely more than two weeks into the 18-month programme, the BoE has already filled more than 10% of its quota; gilt purchases continuing at steady rate
Evolution of exchange rate main risk to inflation – Mexican deputy
Electoral uncertainty playing on the minds of policy-makers at Bank of Mexico, says Guzmán Calafell; higher pass-through to prices now more of a risk thanks to peso depreciation
No timelines for easing monetary policy – Brazilian governor
Goldfajn comments on monetary policy arrangement in Brazil at the first IMF annual meeting appearance; decisions will be data-dependent, he says
Benefits to inflation overshooting target – Chicago Fed president
Policy-makers “willing to accept” inflationary risk that comes with falling unemployment if Fed overshoots target, Evans says
Fall in inflation only ‘temporary’ – Sarb governor
Positive factors underlying inflation decrease may not be here to stay, says Kganyago, emphasising a continued rise in inflation could threaten long-run growth
RBI’s new MPC cuts rate at first meeting
Debate was “frank, often intense, but always friendly” says governor Urjit Patel, after monetary policy committee votes unanimously for a cut
Inflation worries prompt action from Bank of Mexico
Central bank hikes interest rate by 50bps in last monetary policy meeting before the US presidential election; peso proves volatile in face of international events
Bank of Canada should not raise inflation target – Obstfeld and co-authors
Central bank has been overtaken in transparency metrics, authors say; forward guidance would catapult Canada to top of rankings and could avoid the need for unconventional measures
Armenia cuts again as deflation deepens
Central bank cuts headline rate as inflation dips further below zero, though the board maintains it will be able to return inflation to target in medium term
Inflation expectations more sensitive near the zero lower bound – IMF study
IMF study examines whether monetary policy can boost inflation in constrained environment; countries near zero lower bound could see inflation respond more to shocks
New model shows eurozone output gap remains large, researchers argue
Other models fail to capture interplay of inflation and output, paper says
Sarb governor fends off political criticism
Central bank would co-operate should inquiry into supervision powers be launched; monetary policy committee leaves rate on hold with the prospect of an end to the hiking cycle nearing
RBA’s Lowe: we are not ‘inflation nutters’
Philip Lowe underscores central bank’s “balanced” approach to controlling inflation in his first public appearance as RBA governor, and highlights other initiatives
Declining inflation reduces pass-through effects for emerging markets – BIS paper
Central banks should be less fearful of floating their exchange rates; emerging markets should take note exchange rate channel could be “less effective” in affecting inflation
BoJ targets inflation overshoot with revamped policy approach
Shift to “yield curve control” could give the central bank more room for manoeuvre on asset purchases, as it promises to keep easing until inflation exceeds the target
BIS research seeks to forecast global inflation
Economist builds global inflation forecast using country-level survey forecasts, finding it can be used to improve domestic inflation projections in some countries
Norges Bank paper studies forecast asymmetry at lower bound
Effective lower bound need not translate into asymmetries in other forecast variables, authors find; regime-switching DSGE model helps overcome Lucas critique
Eurozone exchange rate pass-through has declined over time – researcher
Italian exchange rate pass-through has behaved very differently from other major eurozone economies – particularly Germany’s – paper finds
Rates likely to stay on hold, says Chilean monetary policy report
Inflation expected to be in the target range by year-end, latest monetary policy report forecasts show; no need for new hikes if economic trends continue
Kganyago justifies Sarb’s response to ‘troubling mix’ of issues
Sarb governor says the public should be “satisfied” but not “happy” with the current economic outlook, given that monetary policy has only offset some of the problems causing high inflation