Inflation
Kganyago says low point for growth has ‘passed’
The Sarb governor says inflation is “uncomfortably close” to the upper end of the target range; the monetary policy committee unanimously votes to keep rates on hold
Turkish central bank hikes as Trump election hits lira
Turkish lira has been targeted in emerging market currency sell-off; rate hike ignores the latest call for more cuts from Turkish president
Serbia is ready for lower inflation target – Tabaković
Monetary policy and fiscal discipline has allowed Serbia to “join the ranks” of low-inflation countries; projections for growth revised up
Central Bank of Argentina makes third cut in three weeks
Central bank cuts rate on its 35-day Lebac bonds to 25.25%, with analysts expecting further cuts to come as the institution begins transition to new monetary policy instrument
BoJ paper designs new measure of trend inflation
Author’s measure reflects the weighted average of an adaptive component and a forward-looking component
Carney faces grilling from parliament in wake of tenure decision
Regardless of Brexit timetable, BoE governor will leave on June 30, 2019; he warns firms could trigger plans to leave London in late 2017 if Brexit deal proves unsatisfactory
Negative oil shocks outweigh positive ones, says Irish paper
Researcher uses TVAR model to examine eurozone data; concludes size of oil price and economic shock also affects impact on inflation
Reserve Bank of Malawi issues new highest denomination banknote
Central bank issues new denomination as inflation and depreciation continue; 2,000 kwacha note will enter circulation next month
IMF praises Argentinian central bank for proposed changes to monetary policy framework
IMF encouraged by Argentina’s progress but says more effort required to strengthen monetary policy framework, including granting central bank operational independence
IMF lifts censure on Argentinian inflation
Inflation and GDP figures now in line with international standards, fund acknowledges; Lagarde praises Argentinian authority’s efforts to reform statistical agency
RBNZ delivers rate cut as exchange rate strength persists
Board reaffirmed move in light of Trump victory, but cut has been in the offing for some time as NZ dollar strength holds down inflation
Dallas Fed research seeks to improve real-time inflation forecasts
Economists break surveys of inflation expectations down into parts, finding stripping out the noise component improves forecasting
Is the Central Bank of Argentina back?
The Central Bank of Argentina’s new governor, Federico Sturzenegger, has made strong progress in tackling runaway inflation and reversing the country’s monetary decline. But many challenges remain
Weighting models by performance is better than taking simple averages, researchers say
Weighting models by performance is better than taking simple averages, researchers say
Norges Bank deputy warns of vulnerabilities in financial system
“Sharp rise” in property prices and high household indebtedness are a concern, the latest financial stability report reveals; banking sector’s largest corporate exposure is to the real estate market
Bank of England MPC backtracks on planned rate cut
Latest inflation report forecasts larger overshoot of 2% target; there are “limits” to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated, committee says
More research needed on exchange rate pass-through, ECB article says
Research on effects of different shocks on inflation “still in an incipient phase”
BoJ pushes back forecast of 2% inflation
Central bank admits it will take longer than previously expected to hit 2%, as it keeps monetary policy on hold
Dominican Republic central bank hikes despite falling inflation
Central bank action comes as economy grows more than expected, although inflation is well below target; US factors prove a concern
Brazil’s inflation forecasts send mixed messages for monetary policy
‘Market’ forecast suggests there is a limit to monetary easing, central bank minutes show, though ‘reference’ scenario indicates room for more easing
Riksbank signals low rates will stay longer
Swedish central bank says rates likely to remain on hold for longer than planned, with chance of an inter-meeting asset-purchase extension
Chile’s Vergara to pass torch to Marcel
Mario Marcel is chosen to become the next central bank governor when Vergara’s term ends in December; Marcel has experience at the World Bank, OECD and IDB
Brazil makes first interest rate cut in four years
Upbeat inflation figures prompt Central Bank of Brazil into action as Copom unanimously votes for 25bp cut; post-decision statement implies further cuts possible this year
Output gap in euro area is much larger than official estimates – paper
Official estimates predict output gap 3–4% less negative than author’s results; current models do not “adequately capture” inflation developments