Growth
UK inflation unexpectedly drops again
Office for National Statistics reveals CPI annual inflation fell this month; leads to renewed QE expectations and predictions of on-target inflation figure by the end of the year
IMF paper builds dynamic model of systemic risk
Working paper develops dynamic model of risk based on combination of underlying risk factors; finds this provides better warning signals than models with non-dynamic thresholds
RBI holds rates fearing impact of further QE abroad
Reserve Bank of India says another round of quantitative easing in advanced countries would have an adverse impact on growth and inflation; keeps rates on hold in anticipation
BoJ’s Shirai considers eurozone impact on Japan
Sayuri Shirai examines eurozone crisis and discusses impact on Japan; sets out three main channels through which the economy is affected
BIS paper examines impact of financial cycle
Working paper studies the financial cycle and its relationship to the business cycle; emphasises importance of considering the medium term in designing policies
Bank of Finland predicts weaker economic outlook
Latest economic outlook edition of Bank of Finland journal forecasts slowdown in Finnish GDP; highlights risks posed by increased current account deficit
Shirakawa calls for stronger trans-Pacific links
Masaaki Shirakawa delivers speech encouraging countries to strengthen economic ties across the Pacific; describes stronger links as a “win-win” situation
MAS survey shows optimism about economy
Forecasting survey highlights positive views on economy in Singapore; GDP growth expected to strengthen over coming year
RBA governor positive about Australian economy
Glenn Stevens optimistic about Australian economy; warns however against attempts to “engineer a return to the boom”
Bundesbank raises 2012 growth prediction
German central bank records marginally more positive growth expectation for the economy this year; still harbours significant concerns on key issues such as unemployment
IMF paper develops model of world economy
Paper builds structural macroeconomic model of world economy; says such models are “prerequisite” to IMF surveillance
Fed policy-makers consider further QE
Janet Yellen “convinced” of scope for further expansion of Fed balance sheet; Bernanke says rapid fiscal tightening a “serious threat” to recovery
RBI’s Chakrabarty explores financial education in emerging markets
Deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India discusses importance of financial education in emerging markets; says raised savings rate a “necessary condition” for double-digit growth
BIS researcher examines countercyclical policy in emerging markets
BIS Quarterly Review special feature assesses the use of countercyclical policies in emerging markets; finds broad implementation of stabilising monetary and fiscal policies
Fed’s beige book shows continuing modest growth
Federal Reserve economic summary reports continuing growth across the US; describes moderate wage growth and inflation
Central Bank of Belize publishes annual report
Annual report published by Central Bank of Belize says central bank is “cautiously optimistic” regarding economic outlook
BoJ’s Shirakawa considers demographic change in Japan
Governor of Bank of Japan examines macroeconomic impact of aging population; emphasises that Japan need not accept a lower long-run growth rate
Bank of Italy paper analyses impact of organised crime
Working paper estimates counterfactual economic performance in the absence of organised crime; finds mafia presence lowers Italian growth path
Latvia governor assesses state of domestic economy
Bank of Latvia governor discusses developments in the Latvian economy as central bank leaves interest rates unchanged
IMF paper relates fiscal consolidation and growth
Paper discusses relationship between fiscal consolidation and short- and long-run growth; warns that rapid consolidation can be harmful
Lagarde offers views on globalisation
Christine Lagarde discusses global connections and the future; takes feminist line in speech to graduating students
Bank Negara Malaysia reports slower economic growth
Overview of economy shows growth fell to 4.7% in Malaysia in the first quarter of 2012; domestic demand stays strong but export market slows
BoE minutes reveal ‘finely balanced’ decision on QE in UK
Minutes from May meeting of Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee show uncertainty among policy-makers over the decision to leave asset purchase programme at its current level
OECD laments fragile, uneven global recovery
Economic Outlook predicts slower GDP growth across OECD countries in 2012; discusses delicate recovery around the world