Growth
Riksbank paper studies impact of oil on world business cycle
Researchers find possible solution to macro puzzles by introducing oil shocks into a model of the global economy
Financial integration will strengthen region – Thai governor
Santiprabhob says policies need to “converge” in order to create an integrated market; payment systems would be a good place to start with harmonised standards a proven solution, he says
Global institutions strike Mongolia bailout deal
Institutions including the IMF, World Bank and People’s Bank of China strike a deal to provide funding and other support to the slumping economy
IMF’s Werner: Latin America must keep debt under control
Western hemisphere chief says there are some concerning signs on debt, although the risk of a systemic crisis is low; region well placed to weather Fed shock
Long-standing Uzbek central bank chairman dies
Fayzulla Mullazhanov led the central bank since its formation following the collapse of the Soviet Union
Fed report finds many people left behind by growth
Survey finds nearly a quarter of Americans struggling to pay their bills; problems concentrated in less-educated segments of the population and minority groups
Colombia’s Echavarría says monetary policy has been a challenge
Monetary policy has had to adapt to external headwinds that have caused macroeconomic imbalances for Colombia, central bank governor says; effects are now showing signs of abating
IMF expands access to disaster funds
Economies are offered more generous thresholds for funding in the face of severe natural disasters
Uganda will ‘claw back’ losses – Tumusiime-Mutebile
Ugandan governor remains upbeat about the country’s growth, with new figures showing recovery in both the services and industrial sectors; he urges people to ignore pessimistic media reports
Offshoring of services could hinder job security – paper
National Bank of Belgium examines impact of offshoring goods and services; pace of services offshoring could hurt job prospects for those working in the sector
Increasing female participation in workforce will help US growth – Yellen
Fed chair examines barriers women still face when entering the workforce; increasing participation rate could help increase US output by 5%
Israel’s Flug: action needed on productivity
Bank of Israel governor warns Israel remains a laggard when it comes to growing output per person
Long-run rates have been lower – Chicago Fed economists
Economists note the long run downward trend among G7 countries has reversed in the past, suggesting it could do so again
PBoC’s Zhou: 6.5% growth target is ‘within reach’
Governor says he believes China’s growth target is attainable, as he urges countries to remain open to trade and investment
IMF warns bad political choices could trigger instability
Fund says financial stability has improved, but high risks remain in China, Europe and the US
Type of uncertainty matters for modelling – Norges Bank paper
Author develops method to “disentangle” various forms of uncertainty, finding they can have good and bad effects
IMF remains gloomy on Brexit as UK heads for snap election
Maurice Obstfeld admits IMF was overly pessimistic on consumer response to Brexit, but says supply shock could still bite; global outlook more positive
Volatile housing market puts RBA under pressure
Variations in housing growth and prices ramp up risk to financial stability, RBA minutes show; regulator to consider further measures “if needed”
BoJ paper sketches ‘vicious circle’ behind productivity traps
“Lacklustre” economic reforms and firms’ unwillingness to innovate may create a “negatively reinforcing” loop, the authors warn
IMF paper examines impact of China’s new growth model on sub-Saharan Africa
Chinese rebalancing does not have to negatively affect sub-Saharan Africa, paper says; high commodity prices were not the “determining factor” behind region’s strong growth
RBNZ paper develops ‘intuitive and reliable’ output gap measure
Authors turn to a “Beveridge-Nelson filter” to produce an output gap estimate that performs better than those produced by other filtering techniques
Brazil can no longer rely on consumption for growth – paper
IMF paper highlights need for Brazil to switch to investment-led growth model as infrastructure caps threaten productivity and competitiveness
Bank and capital market financing not created equal – BIS paper
Substituting bank loans for non-bank finance after a shock appears to have a negative impact on the economy, authors find
Commodity prices impact the probability of project completion in Peru – paper
BIS paper examines how a drop in oil prices affects the timing and completion of investment projects; results show mining sector in Peru is particularly sensitive